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Mesoscale Discussion 1198
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...EXTREME NERN NEB/SERN SD...EXTREME SERN
   MN/WRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292214Z - 292345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TSTM HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF STORM
   LAKE IA IN THE PAST HOUR...ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF A
   DIFFUSE...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL
   IA AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NRN IA/SRN MN. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING
   HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ALOFT ARE
   SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN AREAS THAT
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S. 

   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
   THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE COVERAGE
   OF STORMS...GIVEN THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS
   THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
   EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE
   HAIL...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
   EVENING WHEN SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED. 

   IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS FAR NERN
   NEB/SERN SD INTO NRN IA/SRN MN NORTH OF ONGOING TORNADO WATCH 367.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42409697 42819688 43259548 43689414 43929310 44239181
               43849115 42999147 42649214 42489258 42409327 42429383
               42409697 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2014
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