Mesoscale Discussion 1198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...South-central/southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
western OK/TX Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301854Z - 302100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this
afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind will be possible, and watch
issuance is possible later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite indicates towering cumulus developing
over the the Sangre de Cristo range of New Mexico, to the east and
northeast of Sante Fe. Modestly moist upslope flow, in conjunction
with continued heating/destabilization, will eventually result in
scattered thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of
northern NM and southern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates/moderate
instability and sufficient effective shear will favor supercell
development with time, with a corresponding threat of large hail and
perhaps locally damaging wind.
With time, convection will spread southeast into the lower
elevations of southeast CO/northeast NM, and eventually into the
OK/TX Panhandles. There is some potential for upscale growth and an
increasing damaging wind threat with time, though even if convection
remains largely discrete, the large hail threat and isolated
damaging gust threat will persist. Watch issuance is possible later
this afternoon over portions of the area to cover the threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35830553 37780562 38080523 38110457 37880358 36980296
36130270 35270281 34550363 34650420 34730500 34840539