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Mesoscale Discussion 1198
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MD 1198 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast CO...Northeast NM...Far
   western OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301854Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this
   afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind will be possible, and watch
   issuance is possible later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite indicates towering cumulus developing
   over the the Sangre de Cristo range of New Mexico, to the east and
   northeast of Sante Fe. Modestly moist upslope flow, in conjunction
   with continued heating/destabilization, will eventually result in
   scattered thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of
   northern NM and southern CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates/moderate
   instability and sufficient effective shear will favor supercell
   development with time, with a corresponding threat of large hail and
   perhaps locally damaging wind. 

   With time, convection will spread southeast into the lower
   elevations of southeast CO/northeast NM, and eventually into the
   OK/TX Panhandles. There is some potential for upscale growth and an
   increasing damaging wind threat with time, though even if convection
   remains largely discrete, the large hail threat and isolated
   damaging gust threat will persist. Watch issuance is possible later
   this afternoon over portions of the area to cover the threat.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35830553 37780562 38080523 38110457 37880358 36980296
               36130270 35270281 34550363 34650420 34730500 34840539

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