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Mesoscale Discussion 1199
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...portions of northeast PA...central/eastern
   NY...central/southern VT/NH...northern CT...central/estern MA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

   Valid 302020Z - 302215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and perhaps isolated large
   hail continues primarily over the eastern two-thirds of the watch
   area.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized area of strong/occasionally severe
   thunderstorms was moving across eastern New York/northeast
   Pennsylvania at 2015Z.  A tendency towards a more linear
   reflectivity structure/short line segments has been noted since
   1930Z over east-central New York in the general vicinity of KSCH,
   with a subtle low/mid-level cyclonic circulation was evident over
   Saratoga County NY.  Latest objective analysis and area VWP data
   indicate 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear and 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE,
   and this downstream environment will continue to support a risk for
   isolated/widely scattered damaging winds for the next few hours. 
   Across western portions of the watch area, generally weak buoyancy
   (500-locally 1000 j/kg) and adequate shear remains in place for at
   least some risk for a stronger storm over the next couple of hours
   with the convective line currently moving through central New York
   state.

   ..Bunting.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41517299 41477467 41487561 41617590 41847595 42597566
               43257535 43637457 43787390 43797341 44137168 43937136
               43377128 42977144 42117172 41817204 41517299 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2017
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