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Mesoscale Discussion 1199
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB THROUGH WRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 367...

   VALID 292306Z - 300030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 367 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN NEB INTO WRN IA AND EXTREME NWRN MO.
   THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MANY STORMS WILL INITIATE...BUT
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF STORMS INCLUDING A
   SUPERCELL AND A LEFT SPLIT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE NEB/IA BORDER ON
   WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SEVERAL MESOSCALE
   BOUNDARIES RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT
   THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SERN MN. THE ATMOSPHERE
   IN THIS REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH A
   MODEST CAP. VWP AND PFC DATA SHOW STRONG SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM...BUT
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. THIS WIND
   PROFILE SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...BUT STORMS MAY TAKE LONGER TO ORGANIZE IN LOWER LEVELS.
   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
   STORMS TO INTERACT WITH EXISTING BOUNDARIES...TORNADOES REMAIN
   POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. MOREOVER...SOME INCREASE IN
   0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SIZE MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ UNDERGOES
   SOME STRENGTHENING. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED
   CUMULUS OVER ERN NEB...AND A FEW OTHER STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
   DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN IA.

   ..DIAL.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41859835 42159565 42179354 41369314 40589365 40369554
               40229791 40769862 41859835 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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