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Mesoscale Discussion 1200
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN APPALACHIANS...TN VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262148Z - 262315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST
   THROUGH ABOUT 00-01Z...BUT OVERALL SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS
   QUESTIONABLE FOR A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN TN...NERN AL...NRN GA
   AND THE WRN CAROLINAS APPEAR TO BE AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY WITH
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE.
   PER REGIONAL VWP DATA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SRN EXTENT
   WITH 0-6 KM VALUES OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT HTX/GSP. UPDRAFTS IN 5-9 KM
   CAPPI DATA APPEAR RATHER PULSE-LIKE AND SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE
   S OF THE 35TH PARALLEL. FARTHER N...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS COULD
   POSE A SOMEWHAT LONGER DURATION DAMAGING WIND RISK OVER ERN TN.

   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 06/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35748540 35988461 35998322 35828228 35558196 34808182
               34308219 34208316 34148590 34358680 34848655 35548565
               35748540 

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Page last modified: June 26, 2015
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