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Mesoscale Discussion 1200
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292321Z - 300045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO IS BEING MONITORED FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT. STORM COVERAGE/EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS A
   HIGH CONDITIONAL RISK OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD STORMS INITIATE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ACROSS NERN
   KS...WITH SOME RECENT INITIATION NOTED NEAR TOP. WITH LITTLE OR NO
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION AND NO WELL-DEFINED SFC
   BOUNDARY TO FOCUS STORMS...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF DEEP
   CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME CONFLUENCE
   IN SFC WINDS IS NOTED BETWEEN MHK-TOP...WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO
   FOCUS RECENT DEVELOPMENT. 

   WITH VERY STRONG MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   35-45 KTS...A HIGH CONDITIONAL RISK OF SUPERCELLS EXISTS WITH ANY
   STORM THAT CAN MATURE. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL
   THREAT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT AFTER 00Z AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38529628 38899644 39319649 39929634 39979585 39899520
               39939461 39799431 39319417 38959418 38649420 38519454
               38449538 38529628 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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