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Mesoscale Discussion 1201
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 300048Z - 300215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NRN WI
   WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MICHIGAN WITH A THREAT OF PRIMARILY
   LARGE HAIL. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THREAT...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE TSTMS IS ONGOING ACROSS NRN
   WI...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL LIKELY MOVING INTO IRON COUNTY. WHILE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
   35-45 IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN SK WILL LIKELY
   SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
   FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO IS
   POSSIBLE...GIVEN PRESENCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODERATE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THOUGH LACK OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
   TEMPER THIS THREAT OVERALL. 

   THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN POTENTIALLY LIMITED
   SPATIAL EXTENT OF THREAT BEFORE STORMS MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

   LAT...LON   45969011 46159048 46479040 46848995 47118904 47418786
               47228734 46558762 46348795 46128832 45998898 45969011 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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