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Mesoscale Discussion 1201
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1201
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0423 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302123Z - 302330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorm development is
   possible later this afternoon. At this time, coverage is expected to
   remain too sparse for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus has recently increased along a surface trough
   across portions of the TX South Plains into the Big Country, with at
   least one recent attempt at initiation across Knox County. With
   temperatures having warmed to near 100 F in the vicinity of the
   surface trough, removing most of the inhibition across the area,
   isolated thunderstorm development is possible. While midlevel flow
   is not as strong as areas farther north, light southeasterly flow
   veering to westerly aloft is resulting in 25-35 kt of effective
   shear, resulting in the potential for weakly rotating updrafts. 

   Steep low-level lapse rates and strong DCAPE will support a threat
   of isolated severe wind gusts. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also
   support some hail risk, especially with northern and eastern extent
   in areas where deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy are in place.
   At this time, the coverage of the threat is expected to remain too
   sparse for watch issuance in the short term.

   ..Dean/Weiss.. 06/30/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32460133 32970114 33810095 33870063 33860017 33659980
               33269983 32650019 32220070 32170104 32250126 32460133 

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