Mesoscale Discussion 1201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017
Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302123Z - 302330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorm development is
possible later this afternoon. At this time, coverage is expected to
remain too sparse for watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus has recently increased along a surface trough
across portions of the TX South Plains into the Big Country, with at
least one recent attempt at initiation across Knox County. With
temperatures having warmed to near 100 F in the vicinity of the
surface trough, removing most of the inhibition across the area,
isolated thunderstorm development is possible. While midlevel flow
is not as strong as areas farther north, light southeasterly flow
veering to westerly aloft is resulting in 25-35 kt of effective
shear, resulting in the potential for weakly rotating updrafts.
Steep low-level lapse rates and strong DCAPE will support a threat
of isolated severe wind gusts. Steep midlevel lapse rates will also
support some hail risk, especially with northern and eastern extent
in areas where deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy are in place.
At this time, the coverage of the threat is expected to remain too
sparse for watch issuance in the short term.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32460133 32970114 33810095 33870063 33860017 33659980
33269983 32650019 32220070 32170104 32250126 32460133