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Mesoscale Discussion 1202
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AND NERN IA AND SWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 300050Z - 300215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP INTO ECNTRL AND NERN IA AND SWRN
   WI THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS HAVE
   INITIATED ALONG AN E-W RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WCNTRL AND
   CNTRL IA AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST THIS EVENING. THE DOWNSTREAM
   ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE
   00Z SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT SHOWED A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE
   850 MB. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...AND THIS RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUTURE
   STORM EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS ASSOCIATED
   WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS MIGHT HELP TO SUSTAIN A FEW STORMS
   INTO A SOMEWHAT MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SOME STORMS MIGHT ALSO
   EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW 70S...ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
   EXPECTED AFTER DARK.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   41699207 42959190 43369078 42699044 41969050 41699207 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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