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Mesoscale Discussion 1203
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 368...

   VALID 300202Z - 300330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 368 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
   368...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO.

   DISCUSSION...STORM EVOLUTION HAS BEEN COMPLEX ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
   368...WITH NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS RESULTING IN RATHER COMPLICATED
   STORM STRUCTURES THUS FAR. REGARDLESS...PERIODIC MID-LEVEL ROTATION
   HAS BEEN NOTED WITH SEVERAL CELLS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE
   HAIL. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
   THE INABILITY TO MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AMIDST THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STORM INTERACTIONS. 

   SOME DECREASE HAS BEEN NOTED IN STORM COVERAGE IN THE LAST
   HOUR...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF INCREASING CAP STRENGTH AND THE LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER...REMAINING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO. THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY FAVOR THE REMAINING
   DISCRETE CELLS IN THE SHORT TERM...SUCH AS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN
   NOTED IN THE CELL SW OF STJ.

   ..DEAN.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38469601 39129622 39759592 40019526 40509456 40529270
               39759269 39379272 38999306 38789334 38509377 38399470
               38469601 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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