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Mesoscale Discussion 1204
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1204
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and portions of northeast New
   Mexcio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 010051Z - 010245Z

   CORRECTED FOR LINE TYPE AND LAT/LONS

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast New Mexico are
   expected to persist into the evening hours. Large hail and strong,
   gusty winds will be possible with these thunderstorms. Additional
   thunderstorms may develop farther east/southeast over portions of
   the Texas Panhandle. Large hail and strong thunderstorm winds would
   be possible with these activity. The area will continue to be
   monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across northeast New Mexico and extreme
   southern Colorado will continue into the evening. Here,
   most-unstable CAPE values between around 1000 J/kg and deep layer
   shear between 40-50 knots will support thunderstorm updraft
   organization, leading to a large hail and strong thunderstorm wind
   risk persisting into the evening. At least initially, the relatively
   isolated nature of the risk should preclude the need for a severe
   thunderstorm watch.

   Farther east, across portions of the Texas Panhandle a more
   favorable environment for thunderstorms appears to be in place. The
   combination of steep mid-level lapse rates (9 C/km) and surface
   dewpoints in the mid-50s to lower-60s have yielded most-unstable
   CAPE values on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, deep-layer
   shear remains on the order of 50 knots. Despite the 00Z/01 July
   sounding from Amarillo, TX, being capped, numerical guidance,
   including the 18Z NAM and multiple runs of the ESRL-HRRR, are
   insistent on the development of additional thunderstorms later this
   evening across this region. 

   Latest water vapor imagery suggests a subtle speed max/short-wave
   trough may be moving east-southeast across southern Colorado. Ascent
   with this mid-level feature may be the thunderstorm
   initiating/maintaining mechanism this evening into the overnight.
   Given the aforementioned favorable environment, a severe
   thunderstorm watch may become necessary should additional
   thunderstorm initiation become likely. 

   Confidence in this scenario is sufficiently high to warrant the
   introduction of 15% wind and hail probabilities (and a categorical
   Slight Risk) with the forthcoming 01Z Convective Outlook.

   ..Marsh/Weiss.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34190501 34960496 35560454 36170359 36330287 36300213
               35830120 34499996 33689990 33160026 32770119 33020254
               33680430 34190501 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2017
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