MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF SC...AND
   NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...
   
   VALID 181748Z - 181845Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF
   SC...AS WELL AS NRN GA. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS
   INDICATE THAT FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
   SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY AND WRN NC...WHERE ONLY MODEST
   SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THE SRN FLANK
   OF THIS MCS HAS EXPERIENCED A BURST IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DUE TO COLD POOL/GUST FRONT INTERACTION WITH
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J PER KG/.
   THESE LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH GA...AND ARE
   COINCIDENT WITH A THERMAL AND MOISTURE AXIS/GRADIENT. GIVEN THE
   POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LA...BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG
   /30-40 KT PER AREA VWP DATA/ NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM TN S INTO GA
   WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND
   CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION. IF STORM PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO
   OCCUR IN THE DIRECTION OF INSTABILITY AXIS OVER GA...THEN A
   CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FAVORED...ALONG
   WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...
   HUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36658668 36698548 37588455 37568407 33458207 33478504
               36658668