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Mesoscale Discussion 1206
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

   Areas affected...East-central New Mexico and west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 010458Z - 010630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist for at least the next couple of
   hours. Large hail and strong thunderstorm winds may be possible. The
   relatively small area and duration should preclude the need for a
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...A lone thunderstorm has moved out of the higher terrain
   of New Mexico into the east New Mexico plains. This thunderstorm
   continues to indicate the potential for large hail, and recent radar
   trends have suggested an increase in the potential for strong
   thunderstorm winds. This threat should continue to persist as the
   thunderstorm continues to move southeast.

   To the east of this cell, new thunderstorms have developed across
   portions of the southwest Texas Panhandle. These thunderstorms all
   developing within an environment characterized by steep
   mid-level-lapse rates and surface dewpoint temperatures in the
   mid-to-upper 50s. This has resulted in most-unstable CAPE values up
   to around 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear values remain sufficient for
   thunderstorm organization, although shear drops off quickly farther
   south.

   The environment in both of these areas will support severe
   thunderstorm potential for the next couple of hours. However, the
   thunderstorms should eventually move far enough east that they will
   move into a more hostile environment -- one that has been worked
   over by earlier convection. Recent surface observations indicate
   strong surface-pressure rises and a cooler, more stable airmass to
   the southeast of the aforementioned thunderstorm areas as outflow
   from thunderstorms farther east pushes west. Additionally, the
   synoptic cold front is slowly moving south across the southern High
   Plains, limiting the potential for any left splits to persist for
   any long duration as they move northward.

   Given this limited spatio-temporal environment conducive for
   development/maintenance of severe thunderstorms, a watch is
   currently not expected. However, isolated large hail and strong
   thunderstorm winds will remain possible for the next couple of
   hours.

   ..Marsh/Weiss.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33360240 33560355 34300381 34730342 34800248 34670198
               34280143 33800147 33450159 33360240 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2017
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