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Mesoscale Discussion 1207
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1207
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of west-central TX.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

   Valid 010756Z - 010900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe winds and isolated large hail will remain possible
   in the watch corridor for a few more hours before the activity
   encounters less-favorable air and weakens.  Although it is uncertain
   how long this activity will remain organized at severe levels,
   recent upscale growth, combined with a favorable inflow environment
   just above the surface indicate the threat may persist across the
   Big Country before activity weakens.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived small cluster of severe storms, that
   formed yesterday afternoon in the southern Sangre de Cristos of
   northern NM, has persisted into west Texas.  Despite brief weakening
   just east of the TX/NM line, this activity re-strengthened and
   produced a 70-kt gust at the Levelland West Texas Mesonet site at
   650Z.  An additional severe-storm cluster developed to its east and
   is crossing portions of Dickens/Crosby/Kent/Garza counties at this
   time.  The clusters may merge in the next 1-2 hours, leading to an
   upscale-grown MCS that, in turn, would move east-southeastward to
   southeastward north of an older outflow boundary that is analyzed
   near a MAF-COM line, and along fresher, aggregated outflow
   boundaries north of that.  

   The most probable corridor for a resulting severe threat corresponds
   to the new watch, between the southern outflow boundary and what
   appears to be prohibitively cool/stable outflow air across northwest
   TX, where additional precip is reinforcing static stability. 
   Modified RAOBs and forecast soundings indicate this environment is
   characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and roughly 40-kt
   northwesterly effective-shear vectors, which also may contribute to
   a southeastward turn.  A broad/35-40-kt LLJ is evident in VWP, with
   associated isentropic lift over the outflows and to LFC expected to
   support convective/severe potential for a few more hours, until the
   LLJ weakens/veers.

   ..Edwards.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31409930 31429951 31700083 32090169 32520219 32930220
               32950220 33380208 33830155 33830152 33830140 33830125
               33830087 33840051 32959909 32759909 32759909 32509909
               32089912 31469919 31409930 31409930 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2017
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