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Mesoscale Discussion 1207
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0858 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

   VALID 270158Z - 270300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK HAS DIMINISHED WITHIN MUCH OF WW 363...WITH
   ANY LINGERING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE NRN
   PORTION OF THE WW. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE INTO NWRN VA DOES NOT
   APPEAR LIKELY BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ANY REMAINING DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD BE TIED TO A
   SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE OH/KY/WV BORDER AREA. WITH THIS
   CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING BELT OF STRENGTHENING 700-MB
   W/SWLYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE 30-40 KT BASE RADAR
   VELOCITIES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...N OF AN
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY A LEAD CLUSTER NOW OVER E-CNTRL
   WV. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER WHETHER THIS LEAD CLUSTER CAN MAINTAIN A
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING RISK E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE MINIMAL
   INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 00Z IAD RAOB AND ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY IN
   MODIFIED 00Z RNK RAOB. SHOULD THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ROBUST
   CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION OCCUR...A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE WOULD
   THEN APPEAR NECESSARY.

   ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   38748026 38787961 38707898 38317863 37937875 37757977
               37708112 37728209 37998272 38468288 38748286 38908260
               38748026 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2015
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