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Mesoscale Discussion 1208
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LAKE MI...SW LOWER MI...NRN IL AND FAR SE WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370...

   VALID 300641Z - 300745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE
   TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WW 370. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A
   LOCAL WW EXTENSION IN AREA AND TIME MAY BE NEEDED TO CONTAIN THE
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM NE MO INTO NRN IL AND SRN LAKE MI WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED BY RAP-V2
   DATA IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
   THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY
   WAS BEING FED BY A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND BY LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM CHICAGO EWD
   TO GRAND RAPIDS MI SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 3 KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED DUE TO THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   INSTABILITY. WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MAKE THE
   WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41388710 40928787 40758873 40918985 41369009 42788814
               43548752 43728688 43368606 42668599 41388710 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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