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Mesoscale Discussion 1208
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1208
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...TX Big Country

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

   Valid 011025Z - 011230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387

   SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out
   through early this morning across the Texas Big Country as a solid
   band of storms advances to the east-southeast.  The need for a new
   severe-thunderstorm watch is unlikely, at this time, for areas
   downstream across the southwest portion of the FWD county warning
   area and the adjacent part of the EWX county warning area.

   DISCUSSION...At 0950Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a solid band of
   storms extending from Haskell County to northwest Coke and southeast
   Mitchell counties, with the southern extent of this band having the
   fastest movement to the southeast at 40 kt.  This faster storm
   motion is likely due to better proximity to stronger 2-hourly
   surface pressure rises of 4-mb within the attendant cold pool.  In
   addition, early morning surface and radar imagery analysis detected
   a composite convective outflow boundary extending from northeast TX
   (25 SE GGG) westward to 40 E SEP to near MKN and BWD, then
   west-northwestward to northeast Coke County and southwest to 35 S
   MAF.  The main band of storms has remained north of the outflow
   boundary, and should continue to move the southeast through the
   eastern part of WW 387, given northwesterly shear vectors remaining
   perpendicular to the convective band.

   Recent surface observations with the passage of the band of storms
   have remained sub-severe.  Although a strong/damaging wind gust
   cannot be ruled out, given the strong surface pressure rises,
   warming cloud tops with this MCS and weakening/veering low-level jet
   suggest the overall severe-weather threat is likely waning.

   Meanwhile, higher theta-e air near and south of the composite
   convective outflow boundary across the southwest portion of FWD
   county warning area into adjacent counties of EWX county warning
   area suggest more favorable inflow air to sustain any remaining
   thunderstorms that reach those areas.  However, the weakening
   low-level jet should limit ascent into the southern part of the MCS
   and preclude a greater severe-weather threat this morning that would
   warrant a new WW.  This scenario is supported by the last several
   HRRR runs, showing the stronger storms weakening by 15Z from SJT to
   BWD to near FTW.

   ..Peters.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32030099 32320016 32949980 33129970 33159944 32869880
               32509876 31949829 31379839 31229890 31249961 31440024
               31770085 32030099 

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