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Mesoscale Discussion 1209
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN VA INTO SRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271656Z - 271930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF SERN VA BY
   18-19Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER PARTS OF
   ERN VA AND ESPECIALLY NC WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN
   PLACE. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE DESTABILIZATION VIA
   THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER N INTO MD LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE W...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FOR SUPERCELLS
   AND TORNADOES GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

   IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
   BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
   EXISTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILST HAVING INFLOW ROOTED IN THE
   HIGHER-CAPE AIR MASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36567591 36437722 36607830 36957839 38027783 38867771
               39077721 38807612 38427576 37827562 37287569 36987572
               36567591 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2015
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