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Mesoscale Discussion 1210
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas...northern Louisiana...and southern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011633Z - 011830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible as a linear
   complex migrates slowly eastward through the afternoon.  A weather
   watch issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant convective complex from overnight activity
   across west Texas has reintensified along/just east of the I-35
   corridor in central/north Texas over the past half hour or so.  This
   reintensification is attributed to eastward propagation of the
   complex into an increasingly uncapped, strongly unstable downstream
   airmass, with MUCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg.  Furthermore,
   propagation along an east-to-west oriented outflow
   boundary/differential heating zone may be promoting further
   organization of the convective cluster despite modest deep shear or
   storm organization.

   Models (including convection-allowing guidance) are not consistent
   with regard to longevity of the complex.  However, the presence of
   ongoing propagation and an uncapped downstream airmass suggests that
   storms should persist through the afternoon, with a slow eastward
   progression across the discussion area over time.  Sporadic damaging
   wind gusts are possible with stronger cores along the leading edge
   of the complex.  A weather watch issuance is not anticipated for
   this activity, although convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32839641 33159566 33379454 33569370 33549284 33279194
               32649180 31979184 31549214 31339324 31159415 31259488
               31049576 30939647 31049694 31389717 31909713 32149701
               32839641 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2017
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