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Mesoscale Discussion 1211
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND...NORTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271901Z - 272100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
   MN. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED AS STORMS
   DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
   INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL
   JET STREAK. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER MANITOBA...IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES GENERALLY AT OR
   ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 45
   KTS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS SUPER CELLULAR STORMS
   CHARACTERIZED BY VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS..WITH
   THE WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND
   RELATIVELY LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS.  THE
   RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH 0-1KM SHEAR LESS THAN 15
   KTS...WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   DAMAGING BOW ECHO STRUCTURES POSSIBLE.

   ..SCHNEIDER/HART.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49099467 47169533 46229653 46089852 46619945 47550001
               48610029 49129989 49099467 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2015
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