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Mesoscale Discussion 1212
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301518Z - 301645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IL.  WW MAY BE
   NEEDED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE
   FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LEAD MCS MOVING
   THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IND AND ADJACENT FAR SERN IL...WHILE TRENDS IN
   MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM
   THIS LEAD SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL IL.  THE STORM IN
   FULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST ON THE COOL SIDE
   OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LIGHTING DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE LEAD MCS AND THE FULTON/
   PEORIA COUNTIES STORM WHERE ONGOING DIABATIC HEATING OF A MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT /PW EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES/ HAS ERODED INHIBITION FOR
   SURFACE BASED STORMS INVOF THE NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A WEAKENING TREND IN 7- AND 9-KM CAPPI WITH THE
   FULTON/PEORIA COUNTIES STORM SUGGESTS FORCING IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN AN ONGOING STRONG-SEVERE STORM THREAT...AT LEAST IN THE
   SHORT TERM.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   40668975 40288909 39978851 39678817 39318829 38978881
               39288964 40069029 40269037 40668975 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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