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Mesoscale Discussion 1212
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...middle through eastern
   Tennessee...western North Carolina...northern Georgia...and northern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011718Z - 011915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms should increase in intensity and coverage
   over the course of the afternoon, with hail and damaging wind
   potential increasing.  A WW may be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed in western
   Kentucky and middle Tennessee over the past couple of hours.  These
   storms are in an environment characterized by modest deep shear
   profiles (25-30 knots) and moderate to strong instability (2000-3000
   J/kg MUCAPE), with forcing for ascent provided by subtle low-level
   convergence (westerly to southwesterly low-level flow) and the
   glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over Indiana
   aiding in ongoing convective development.  

   Models and observations support a gradual, yet continued increase in
   convective coverage over the course of the afternoon, with an
   attendant increase in damaging wind and marginally severe hail
   potential - especially in eastern Tennessee.  Convective trends are
   being monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for
   parts of the region later this afternoon.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33948816 35038812 36068804 36618780 36908728 37088672
               37118623 37198530 37228408 37098330 36928260 36738217
               36358199 35768225 35128277 34478355 34018511 33748657
               33868778 33948816 

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