MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN NM INTO W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 182037Z - 182200Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD OVER
   LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES IN ERN NM INTO COCHRAN AND BAILEY
   COUNTIES IN TX WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONGESTED CUMULUS OVER ARMSTRONG
   COUNTY TX.  AIR MASS HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY MOIST THIS AFTERNOON
   DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000
   J/KG.  THE GROWING CUMULUS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER APPEARS TO BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD. 
   THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE TX BIG BEND
   REGION SHOULD EVENTUALLY FOSTER SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
   21-22Z.
   
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINS OF THAT
   SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE
   DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL BE
   CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/18/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   32090381 33470395 34910327 35860237 36130142 35470080
               34060098 32590172 32070237 31940316 32090381