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Mesoscale Discussion 1213
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272101Z - 272330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SVR
   TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A MODEST-COVERAGE SVR EVENT IS
   LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
   INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
   THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ NEAR TUCSON.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THE DIURNALLY HEATED/WELL MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST PW BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.3 INCHES PER GPS DATA.
   STRONG SFC HEATING IS FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY
   SPREAD WWD...AND WSWWD OFF THE RIM. WITH DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG
   IN THE WELL/DEEPLY MIXED PBL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONG
   OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN. A FEW ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
   ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IF LOCALIZED COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
   FOSTER MESO-BETA-SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL WIND THREAT.
   THIS MAY BE BECOMING EVIDENT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SW OF THE WHITE
   MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD AFFECT THE TUCSON AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THE EMX VWP SAMPLES 10-15-KT ELYS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL...WHICH MAY
   INDEED SUPPORT WWD MOVING COLD POOLS SPREADING ACROSS THE DESERT
   FLOOR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING -- PERHAPS AFFECTING THE
   PHOENIX AREA BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
   IN PLACE...AND WITHOUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
   GROWTH...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY...THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ..COHEN/SCHNEIDER/HART.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31291107 32441213 34921207 34141044 33010919 31910905
               31270930 31291107 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2015
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