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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...Much of New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012132Z - 012330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms currently in higher terrain and along the New
   Mexico Front Range may organize further with time, posing a severe
   hail and wind threat over the next several hours.  A WW may be
   needed before 00Z for portions of the discussion area.

   DISCUSSION...Peak surface heating (and resultant moderate
   destabilization) has fostered the development of several mostly
   high-based thunderstorms over the past couple of hours.  These
   storms have exhibited some hail and damaging wind potential
   recently, although this has generally been on an isolated basis. 
   25-35 knots of deep shear and veering vertical wind profiles with
   height will foster continued storm organization over the course of
   the afternoon, although relatively weak low/mid-level wind profiles
   will likely tend to favor outflow-dominant/undercutting convection.

   Over the course of the afternoon, storms may attempt to
   congeal/merge outflow boundaries, fostering upscale growth into one
   or two linear complexes.  If this upscale-growth process does occur,
   the attendant severe weather threat will increase and necessitate a
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance for a portion of the discussion
   area.  Convective trends will be monitored for this possibility.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 07/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34480697 35560764 36350762 36930641 36980485 36540369
               35830316 35350298 33990275 32400306 32160403 32420556
               33350629 34480697 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2017
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