|Mesoscale Discussion 1214|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017
Areas affected...Much of New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 012132Z - 012330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms currently in higher terrain and along the New
Mexico Front Range may organize further with time, posing a severe
hail and wind threat over the next several hours. A WW may be
needed before 00Z for portions of the discussion area.
DISCUSSION...Peak surface heating (and resultant moderate
destabilization) has fostered the development of several mostly
high-based thunderstorms over the past couple of hours. These
storms have exhibited some hail and damaging wind potential
recently, although this has generally been on an isolated basis.
25-35 knots of deep shear and veering vertical wind profiles with
height will foster continued storm organization over the course of
the afternoon, although relatively weak low/mid-level wind profiles
will likely tend to favor outflow-dominant/undercutting convection.
Over the course of the afternoon, storms may attempt to
congeal/merge outflow boundaries, fostering upscale growth into one
or two linear complexes. If this upscale-growth process does occur,
the attendant severe weather threat will increase and necessitate a
severe thunderstorm watch issuance for a portion of the discussion
area. Convective trends will be monitored for this possibility.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34480697 35560764 36350762 36930641 36980485 36540369
35830316 35350298 33990275 32400306 32160403 32420556
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