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Mesoscale Discussion 1214
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SD AND PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHWEST MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272145Z - 272315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SPREAD
   TOWARD PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
   TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ND/SD STATE BORDER
   AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH-CENTRAL SD. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
   QUITE AS STRONG AS FURTHER NORTH DUE TO POORER SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS...IT IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
   FURTHERMORE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL AID IN MAINTENANCE AND
   ORGANIZATION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. POOR
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND HENCE LARGE
   HAIL PRODUCTION. BUT...LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
   SPREADS...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
   BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WILL AID IN STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE
   BY 23Z.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45949576 45689538 45189514 44709528 44369590 44219703
               44229877 44269895 44440012 44720074 45110080 45460048
               45859948 45949911 45979816 45949576 

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Page last modified: June 27, 2015
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