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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

   Areas affected...TX South Plains and parts of southeastern NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020409Z - 020515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) are possible for the
   next few hours as a southeastward-moving squall line moves across
   the TX South Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line from 45 miles
   west of AMA to 30 miles southeast of CVS to 20 east-northeast ROW. 
   A 58 mph gust was observed at Clovis/Cannon AFB at 0326Z and a 57
   mph gust at the Bootleg, TX West TX Mesonet at 0322Z.  A moist
   boundary layer is located ahead of the MCS with lower 60s degrees F
   dewpoints near the gust front and upper 60s south of LBB.  Although
   the squall line is only moving at 30 kt, a MCV is now evident in
   radar imagery.  Modifying the 00Z AMA raob for middle 70s
   temperatures and middle 60s dewpoints yields around 2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE.  Current thinking is the severe risk may continue to be
   isolated due to mainly subsevere to marginally severe gusts. 
   However, if West TX Mesonet sites observe higher gusts, then a
   severe thunderstorm watch may be considered.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33590387 35180256 34890092 33790074 32880222 32490365

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