|Mesoscale Discussion 1215|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017
Areas affected...TX South Plains and parts of southeastern NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020409Z - 020515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) are possible for the
next few hours as a southeastward-moving squall line moves across
the TX South Plains.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line from 45 miles
west of AMA to 30 miles southeast of CVS to 20 east-northeast ROW.
A 58 mph gust was observed at Clovis/Cannon AFB at 0326Z and a 57
mph gust at the Bootleg, TX West TX Mesonet at 0322Z. A moist
boundary layer is located ahead of the MCS with lower 60s degrees F
dewpoints near the gust front and upper 60s south of LBB. Although
the squall line is only moving at 30 kt, a MCV is now evident in
radar imagery. Modifying the 00Z AMA raob for middle 70s
temperatures and middle 60s dewpoints yields around 2000 J/kg
MUCAPE. Current thinking is the severe risk may continue to be
isolated due to mainly subsevere to marginally severe gusts.
However, if West TX Mesonet sites observe higher gusts, then a
severe thunderstorm watch may be considered.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33590387 35180256 34890092 33790074 32880222 32490365
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