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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND ERN IA/NWRN AND NRN
   IL/SRN WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373...

   VALID 301827Z - 302000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT
   GUSTS POSSIBLE...PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 373 /IN IOWA/. 

   THESE SVR THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
   NEW WATCH LIKELY NEEDED EAST OF WW 373 BY 19Z.

   STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN PART OF WW 373 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WIND SHIFT /SURFACE WINDS BECOMING
   NLY/.

   DISCUSSION...COMPLEX STORM ORGANIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL
   IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM
   WEBSTER/BOONE COUNTIES TO ADAIR COUNTY MOVING ESEWD AT 40-45
   KT...WITH AT LEAST ONE SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE NEAR DSM.
    ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED IN HAMILTON/HARDIN AND STORY
   COUNTIES.  THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/ WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 50-70 KT MAINTAINING STORM ORGANIZATION.  SELY SURFACE
   WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THESE STORMS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. 

   CURRENT EWD TO ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTRAL IA STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
   SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT WW 373 BY 19Z.  AIR MASS RECOVERY
   PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI GIVEN
   LIMITED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING. 
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THE ONGOING CENTRAL IA
   STORMS SUGGESTING A GENERAL ESEWD MOVEMENT MAY PERSIST.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...
   OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40519154 40719370 40599545 40589686 40759781 41049780
               41889604 42479496 42679336 42649238 42738802 41918769
               40508751 39858832 40519154 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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