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Mesoscale Discussion 1216
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022016Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind are possible as widely
   scattered storms develop along a quasi-stationary front. The
   short-term threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe
   thunderstorm watch, but the wind risk and probability of a watch may
   increase later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Initial storm development has commenced along a
   quasi-stationary front that extends from near Alliance to Norfolk.
   Environment is likely characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg amid
   steep low and mid-level lapse rates, with large surface
   temperature/dew point spreads noted across central and western NE.
   With a weak mid-level ridge across the High Plains, 500-mb winds
   should be predominately northwesterly. Although modest in speed,
   directional veering with height owing to weak low-level southerlies
   is likely supporting 25-30 kt effective shear. Setup should favor
   multicells to transient supercell structures with isolated
   occurrences of large hail and locally severe wind gusts as the
   short-term hazards. Recent NCEP and ESRL HRRR runs remain suggestive
   of storm-scale consolidation later this evening (after 00Z) which
   may result in an increased wind risk across parts of southern NE
   into western KS.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 07/02/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42360380 42500348 42240184 41889950 41939841 41849769
               41489754 41039758 40659776 40239841 40089991 40080103
               40340170 40990239 41570348 42360380 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2017
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