Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1216 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022016Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind are possible as widely
   scattered storms develop along a quasi-stationary front. The
   short-term threat is expected to be too isolated to warrant a severe
   thunderstorm watch, but the wind risk and probability of a watch may
   increase later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Initial storm development has commenced along a
   quasi-stationary front that extends from near Alliance to Norfolk.
   Environment is likely characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg amid
   steep low and mid-level lapse rates, with large surface
   temperature/dew point spreads noted across central and western NE.
   With a weak mid-level ridge across the High Plains, 500-mb winds
   should be predominately northwesterly. Although modest in speed,
   directional veering with height owing to weak low-level southerlies
   is likely supporting 25-30 kt effective shear. Setup should favor
   multicells to transient supercell structures with isolated
   occurrences of large hail and locally severe wind gusts as the
   short-term hazards. Recent NCEP and ESRL HRRR runs remain suggestive
   of storm-scale consolidation later this evening (after 00Z) which
   may result in an increased wind risk across parts of southern NE
   into western KS.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 07/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42360380 42500348 42240184 41889950 41939841 41849769
               41489754 41039758 40659776 40239841 40089991 40080103
               40340170 40990239 41570348 42360380 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: July 02, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities