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Mesoscale Discussion 1217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272353Z - 280200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD WEAKEN AS IT
   OVERSPREADS THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...LIKELY DURING
   THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...SURFACE
   GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE

   DISCUSSION...GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. 
   CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
   CONSOLIDATING AND COULD...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...INTENSIFY DURING THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO.  BASED ON THE LATEST VWP DATA FROM PHOENIX...SYSTEM
   RELATIVE INFLOW UP TO 30 KT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS THE CONGLOMERATE
   COLD POOL BEGINS TO APPROACH PHOENIX.  HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
   FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHETHER THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
   THE LOWER DESERTS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE TO MAINTAIN
   VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS...STRONG WIND GUSTS
   APPROACHING OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS APPEAR
   POSSIBLE WITH EVEN WEAKENING CONVECTION AS IT OVERSPREADS THE
   PHOENIX AREA DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/WEISS.. 06/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33581259 33841195 33771110 33121133 32801180 32991260
               33581259 

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