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Mesoscale Discussion 1217
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and portions of adjacent states

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022053Z - 022300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Any marginal severe hail threat probably will begin to
   diminish as storms further increase in coverage and consolidate over
   eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon.  However, the risk for strong
   wind gusts approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits could
   continue to increase.  At this point, the probability for a watch
   issuance still seems low, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is well underway, now
   mostly east of the Interstate 35 corridor of central Oklahoma.  This
   is occurring in the presence of weak inhibition, where a pocket of
   slightly cooler mid-level temperatures lingers ahead of a remnant
   mesoscale convective vortex,  on the eastern periphery of a plume of
   warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed layer air slowly
   advecting east of the high plains.  

   Insolation within a very moist boundary layer air mass characterized
   by mid/upper 70s surface dew points is contributing to large CAPE
   across much of eastern Oklahoma, with greatest potential instability
   focused roughly between the Interstate 44 and 40 corridors.  Deep
   layer mean westerly flow is generally less than 20 kt across this
   region, but veering wind profiles with height may be contributing to
   vertical shear marginally conducive to the evolution of an organized
   convective system.

   Given this environment, considerable further upscale convective
   growth appears possible through the 23-01Z time frame, accompanied
   by a gradual consolidation and strengthening of convectively
   generated cold pools.  It may not be out of the question that this
   could coincide with the evolution of another lower/mid tropospheric
   vortex, and a rear inflow jet that could support an increasing risk
   for strong surface gusts that could approach or briefly exceed
   severe limits through early evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/02/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36849675 37039616 36439504 36089454 35509356 34959395
               34669470 34119544 33949644 34289669 35229614 35999617

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