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Mesoscale Discussion 1217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA/NRN IL/SRN-ERN WI/NWRN IND AND SRN LAKE
   MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 374...

   VALID 302025Z - 302100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 374 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE THREATS PERSIST ACROSS WW 374...WITH AN
   INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE
   CHICAGO AND MILWAUKEE METRO AREAS BY 22-23Z /5-6 PM CDT/.  A NEW WW
   IS LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 374...WITH A PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   LIKELY.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE NWD INTO ERN WI.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT FROM FAR ERN IA EWD
   THROUGH NRN IL...NWRN IND...AND SRN INTO ERN WI SHOWED VERY STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J PER KG/...WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   2000 J/KG IN ERN WI.  THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS IN ERN IA WAS MOVING
   EAST AT 50 KT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CHI/MKE METRO AREAS BETWEEN
   22-23Z.  GIVEN RECENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 KT...REAR-INFLOW JET
   ATTENDANT TO THIS BOW...AND VERY STRONG INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY AS THE BOW PROGRESSES EWD. 

   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN WI AND STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN AND ERN WI SUGGESTS FURTHER STORM FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH EWD EXTENT.  SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
   AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

   ..PETERS.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
   ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   40369230 41149224 41459237 42209222 43069205 43889032
               44208814 44148704 43248666 42378628 41318657 40518728
               40438823 40358954 40138994 40039051 40369230 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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