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Mesoscale Discussion 1218
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302052Z - 302245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS ONCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS.

   DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINT
   VALUES IN THE MID 70S. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 4000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35 TO 45 KT.
   THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH ALL
   SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE ONCE CAPPING IS OVERCOME. CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE FRONTAL ZONE IS WEAK AND STRONG CAPPING WAS NOTED IN THE 18Z TOP
   SOUNDING. THIS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF AND WHEN CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION WILL OCCUR BUT CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
   CONSISTENT ON AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THIS REGION BETWEEN
   21Z-23Z. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER
   THE SVR THREAT IF AND WHEN IT MATERIALIZES.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40559582 40479399 40359368 39929372 39119460 38979501
               38709588 38539756 38929827 39529802 39969754 40409667
               40559582 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2014
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