Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1218
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1218 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

   Areas affected...southwest NE into northwestern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

   Valid 030104Z - 030200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390
   continues.

   SUMMARY...There appears to be an increasing risk (scattered
   coverage) for severe gusts (60-75 mph) as a squall line matures and
   intensifies as it moves south into southwestern NE and northwestern
   KS during the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic trends over the past 1-2 hours has shown
   cellular storms merging and upscale growth occurring near I-80 in
   west-central NE near North Platte.  The 00Z LBF raob exhibited steep
   lapse rates from the surface through the mid levels (8.3 degrees
   C/km in the 850-500 mb layer) with a well-mixed boundary layer
   beneath 700 mb.  Southeasterly low-level flow veering to westerly in
   the mid and high-levels is resulting in around 40-kt effective
   shear---supportive of storm organization.  A fairly sharp gradient
   in moisture is evident in 01Z surface observations with dewpoints in
   the mid 40s to mid 50s near the CO border to the lower-mid 60s near
   Hill City, KS.  A mesonet site at Kingsley Dam in Keith County, NE
   recorded a 77 mph gust at 0144Z.  

   Given the favorable low-level thermodynamic profile featuring a
   well-mixed/steep lapse rate profile and an organizing MCS, there is
   an expectation for severe gusts becoming spatially more expansive
   during the next several hours.  A recent model run of the HRRR takes
   this MCS south of the I-70 corridor around 05Z.  A spatial
   extension-in-area may need to be considered in the short term for
   Thomas, Sheridan, Graham, and Rooks counties in KS.

   ..Smith.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39000153 40750269 41310124 41059937 39119903 39000153 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 03, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities