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Mesoscale Discussion 1218
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN INTO SOUTHEAST SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280107Z - 280230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONTINUED WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS EXPECTED
   WITH THE CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN
   AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST SD. AN OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUST OR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL STONE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z IN AND
   NEAR THE EXISTING WATCH AREAS...BUT NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCHES ARE NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS
   TORNADO WATCH 365 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366 OVER THE LAST 45
   MINUTES OR SO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS STORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO A
   POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. SPORADIC/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   MAY STILL OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY STABLE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
   OR IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED
   AND SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. DOWNSTREAM WATCHES ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46389498 46229409 45619363 44789372 44059478 43759557
               43579708 43559886 44089889 44619867 44659602 44679530
               44809509 46389498 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2015
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