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Mesoscale Discussion 1219
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1219
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1056 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2017

   Areas affected...for portions of western and central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030356Z - 030430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts are possible for the next few
   hours.  It remains unclear how far south and extensive is the
   potential severe risk.  Short-term trends (i.e., Hill City, KS ASOS
   observation) may be used to help assess severe potential and the
   need for an additional severe thunderstorm watch to the south of
   severe thunderstorm watch 390.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a MCV is located near the KS-NE
   border 30 miles east of McCook, NE.  A gust front has surged south
   of the active convection from Sheridan County westward to the CO-KS
   border near Goodland, KS.  KGLD recently measured a 44 kt gust at
   0331Z with the gust front which was displaced from stronger
   thunderstorm downdrafts to the northeast.  Surface temperatures have
   slowly cooled into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees F with
   dewpoints in the upper 50s near Garden City, KS to the middle-upper
   60s near Great Bend, KS.  The cooling boundary layer temperatures
   have resulted in increasing MLCINH.  Low-level lapse rates and
   evaporative cooling potential have lessened over the past 2 hours. 
   However, the organized character of the MCS, deep thunderstorm cores
   (echo tops 45k-50k feet AGL), and potential water-loading
   contribution of the stronger downdrafts may still encourage strong
   to localized severe gusts (50-65 mph) for the next few hours.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38260132 39520147 39559853 38219848 38019876 37980084

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