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Mesoscale Discussion 1219
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL INTO ERN MO...WRN IL...

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281836Z - 282030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 20-21Z
   TIME FRAME FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED. THE ST. LOUIS AREA IS IN THE HIGHEST THREAT CORRIDOR.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD
   ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL IA AT 18Z.
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
   LOW...WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW NEAR THE MS RIVER IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING AND MIXING HAS COMMENCED
   UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   FROM KS INTO WRN MO. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CIN
   REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S F. 

   AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS SEWD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT
   WILL REMAIN BACKED...WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
   THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED
   WITH FAVORABLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY
   FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED.

   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH
   STORMS MATURING AS THEY TRAVEL SEWD. OTHER CELLS WILL FORM LATER IN
   THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT WITH A HAIL AND TORNADO
   THREAT.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38438974 38269045 38249236 38469294 38739314 39409284
               39949286 40649258 40899188 40659094 40089047 39268982
               38698959 38438974 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2015
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