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Mesoscale Discussion 1220
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017

   Areas affected...Far northeast TX...southeast OK...and southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030801Z - 031030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts will be possible across far
   northeast Texas and adjacent counties in southwest AR through 09Z. 
   Meanwhile, elevated storms developing and spreading to the
   east-southeast across southeast OK and far northeast TX into
   southwest AR through the early morning will be capable of producing
   hail, at times, around 1 inch in diameter.

   DISCUSSION...At 0755Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a bowing line of
   storms extending from Bowie into Cass Counties TX, with an eastward
   motion close to 40 kt.  Although this forward speed suggests locally
   strong/damaging wind gusts would be possible, these storms are
   located north of a convective outflow boundary attendant to the
   leading band of storms that has already moved into west-central to
   southwest AR.  As these storms continue to move east into an
   increasingly stable environment across southwest AR, the potential
   for stronger-momentum air to reach the surface is expected to
   diminish.

   Meanwhile, southwesterly low-level winds extend through northeast
   TX/southeast OK/southwest AR at speeds of 25-30 kt into the western
   extent of the MCS (Bryan to Coal Counties OK) and at 30-40 kt into
   far northeast TX and southwest AR.  Low-level warm advection
   attendant to this low-level jet atop the outflow boundary, which
   extended from Nevada County AR to extreme northern Caddo Parish LA,
   and then westward through far northern TX, will maintain new
   thunderstorm development north and south of the Red River in
   southeast OK and northeast TX.  IR imagery showed cloud tops warming
   with the leading portion of the MCS, suggesting the overall
   severe-weather threat will be quite minimal with storms moving into
   southwest AR.  Recent cloud-top cooling in southeast OK (Byran to
   Coal and Atoka Counties) suggests stronger updrafts with some
   potential for producing hail, though weak bulk shear of 25-30 kt and
   weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to temper hail size.

   ..Peters/Edwards.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32979396 33059494 33669645 34359661 34849665 34689597
               34489503 34369427 34069379 33759339 33259356 32979396 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2017
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