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Mesoscale Discussion 1220
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281917Z - 282015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON
   AND ALONG RIM.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AS
   STORM OUTFLOWS MERGE AND DEVELOP WESTWARD.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL
   ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF TUS AND ALONG RIM IN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF APPROXIMATELY 20
   KTS AS INDICATED IN 1830 UTC EMX VWP...1.40IN TPW IN 1200 UTC TUS
   SOUNDING...MESO ANALYSIS ESTIMATED MUCAPE AOA 1000J/KG AND DCAPE AOA
   1200 J/KG.  

   COMPARISON OF 1200 UTC SOUNDINGS AT TUS FROM TODAY AND YESTERDAY
   YIELD SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW GENERATED WIND THREAT POTENTIAL SIMILAR IN SCOPE. 
   UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE MAKE FORECAST OF EXACT
   EVOLUTION OF OUTFLOWS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS STAGE. CONDITIONS ARE
   BEING MONITORED...BUT A CONVECTIVE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..SCHNEIDER/HART.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31390933 31351085 31961269 33451301 34961296 35531172
               34791086 34310931 34470812 34410773 33130784 31840891
               31390933 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2015
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