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Mesoscale Discussion 1221
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of western and central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...

   Valid 030834Z - 031030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391

   SUMMARY...The overall severe risk for damaging winds has greatly
   diminished during the overnight, while an isolated hail threat
   (periodically reaching diameters around 1 inch) will remain possible
   through the early morning.

   DISCUSSION...The overnight/early morning surface analyses combined
   with trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a large composite
   outflow boundary, attendant to the central Plains MCS, extended from
   east of MHK to near EWK to south of PTT to southwest KS (Stanton
   County) and southeast CO.  Mosaic radar imagery also indicated
   strong/sustained storms in and just south of the extreme
   south-central portion of WW 391, while a separate storm or two had
   developed in northwest KS (eastern Sherman County).  

   In the short-term, low-level warm advection per southerly low-level
   winds atop the composite outflow boundary, combined with steep
   midlevel lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, suggests the
   potential for a few additional strong to severe elevated storms. 
   Hail will be the primary severe threat.  However, this severe threat
   should be short-lived as the low-level jet undergoes further
   weakening, with a subsequent decrease in ascent limiting
   new/sustained storm development.

   ..Peters.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37789956 37679997 38640152 39480157 39170026 39189872
               39219792 38639728 38109760 37749863 37789956 

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