Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017
Areas affected...Portions of western and central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...
Valid 030834Z - 031030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
SUMMARY...The overall severe risk for damaging winds has greatly
diminished during the overnight, while an isolated hail threat
(periodically reaching diameters around 1 inch) will remain possible
through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...The overnight/early morning surface analyses combined
with trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a large composite
outflow boundary, attendant to the central Plains MCS, extended from
east of MHK to near EWK to south of PTT to southwest KS (Stanton
County) and southeast CO. Mosaic radar imagery also indicated
strong/sustained storms in and just south of the extreme
south-central portion of WW 391, while a separate storm or two had
developed in northwest KS (eastern Sherman County).
In the short-term, low-level warm advection per southerly low-level
winds atop the composite outflow boundary, combined with steep
midlevel lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, suggests the
potential for a few additional strong to severe elevated storms.
Hail will be the primary severe threat. However, this severe threat
should be short-lived as the low-level jet undergoes further
weakening, with a subsequent decrease in ascent limiting
new/sustained storm development.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 37789956 37679997 38640152 39480157 39170026 39189872
39219792 38639728 38109760 37749863 37789956