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Mesoscale Discussion 1221
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 282021Z - 282115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN KS...AND PERHAPS FAR NERN OK
   AND INTO SWRN MO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TCU CONGREGATED NEAR A LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE VERY STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CIN. DEWPOINTS
   HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH AROUND 1000-1500
   J/KG MUCAPE PRESENT AND LCLS AROUND 700 MB. 

   ABOVE THIS WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH
   HEIGHT OUT OF THE NW. THIS SHOULD AID IN MOVING STORMS IN A SEWD
   DIRECTION OVER TIME. SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS LIKELY...WITH
   LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS. SMALL HAIL LADEN DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALSO ADD TO
   WIND POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FOCUSED AREA AND MARGINAL
   THREAT...A WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36859522 36889651 37099724 37639769 37939738 37969612
               38179529 38359501 38109452 37479415 37109417 36919439
               36859522 

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Page last modified: June 28, 2015
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