Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1221 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 302212Z - 302315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG STALLING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THEN SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO.  A WATCH
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z.

   DISCUSSION...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR THE NW
   MO/SW IA BORDER...JUST E OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   TRAILING FROM THE SW WI/NW IL MCS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. 
   STRONG BUOYANCY REMAINS ALONG AND S OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...AND THIS CORRIDOR IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
   MIDLEVEL WLYS.  THE COMBINATION OF PEAK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
   WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX MOVING ESEWD OVER THE MID MO
   VALLEY...WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN MO...AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE
   AOA 4000 J/KG WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME TORNADO
   RISK.  OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   ACROSS NRN MO.

   ..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   39569383 39629498 40049535 40529520 40699493 40719398
               40749287 40579177 40429137 40169124 39759144 39689178
               39629260 39569383 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 30, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities