|Mesoscale Discussion 1222|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017
Areas affected...much of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031953Z - 032200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected to form by 21-22Z across the Oklahoma Panhandle region,
spreading southeastward through evening.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across the TX/OK panhandles
into western OK, where low-level moisture continues to recover.
Visible imagery shows CU fields increasing as well, with surface
convergence maximized across the eastern OK panhandle. Continued
heating should result in storms forming here by before 22Z.
Dewpoints in the 70s currently extend from north central OK
southward into TX, with a relative dry area over southwest OK with
mid 60s. However, increasingly southerly winds through evening
should help all areas to recover. The result will be MLCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg, with steep midlevel lapse rates in place.
Flow aloft is weak, but sufficient for an MCS to form and propagate
southeastward through evening with damaging wind threat. Large hail
is likely mainly over northwestern area before cells merge into an
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34809990 35080021 35880087 36410096 36870089 37200022
37249963 37159910 36899822 36679778 36219728 35609706
34679749 34309848 34519930 34809990
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home