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Mesoscale Discussion 1222
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017

   Areas affected...much of western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031953Z - 032200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail are
   expected to form by 21-22Z across the Oklahoma Panhandle region,
   spreading southeastward through evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues across the TX/OK panhandles
   into western OK, where low-level moisture continues to recover.
   Visible imagery shows CU fields increasing as well, with surface
   convergence maximized across the eastern OK panhandle. Continued
   heating should result in storms forming here by before 22Z. 

   Dewpoints in the 70s currently extend from north central OK
   southward into TX, with a relative dry area over southwest OK with
   mid 60s. However, increasingly southerly winds through evening
   should help all areas to recover. The result will be MLCAPE in
   excess of 3000 J/kg, with steep midlevel lapse rates in place.

   Flow aloft is weak, but sufficient for an MCS to form and propagate
   southeastward through evening with damaging wind threat. Large hail
   is likely mainly over northwestern area before cells merge into an

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34809990 35080021 35880087 36410096 36870089 37200022
               37249963 37159910 36899822 36679778 36219728 35609706
               34679749 34309848 34519930 34809990 

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