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Mesoscale Discussion 1223
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA AND FAR WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302328Z - 010100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN
   INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH
   THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
   NE/SW-ORIENTED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY APPROXIMATELY BISECTING IA. THE
   RETURN OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ATOP THE STABLE LAYER DEPOSITED BY
   EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IS BEING ENCOURAGED BY 30-40-KT FLOW
   SAMPLED WITHIN THE 1-2-KM-AGL LAYER BY THE DVN VWP. RELATED BUOYANCY
   IS ELEVATED N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED WELL TO THE S. STRONG
   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW PERSISTENT/ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   WITH HAIL POSSIBLY APPROACHING/REACHING SVR LIMITS.
   HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS WILL LIKELY BE BASED WELL ABOVE
   THE SFC...LIMITING THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42159206 42499100 42428988 41449042 41029349 42159206 

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