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Mesoscale Discussion 1223
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 032202Z - 032330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms along the NM/TX border
   should intensify and increase in coverage as they move east across
   the TX Panhandle. An additional severe thunderstorm watch to the
   west of WW 392 is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing along the NM/TX
   border. This activity will pose a risk for isolated severe wind and
   hail in the near-term given the steep low/mid-level lapse rate
   environment characterized by 35 to 45 degree surface temperature/dew
   point spreads. Farther east, richer surface dew points /middle 60s/
   are prevalent along the I-27 corridor. It appears plausible that as
   these storms shift east amid 20-30 kt mid-level westerlies per
   FDX/AMA VWP data, this activity should intensify. Recent NCEP and
   ESRL HRRR runs also indicate potential for merging with the trailing
   portion of the currently separated severe MCS near the eastern TX
   panhandle/northwest OK border, which may further enhance the severe
   wind threat later this evening towards the Childress vicinity.

   ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/03/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35210289 35500185 35680104 35630061 35160059 34839991
               34519946 34209939 33999957 33859991 33630082 33940251
               34410298 35210289 

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Page last modified: July 03, 2017
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