Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1224
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1224 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 302347Z - 010115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ENTER LOWER MI NEAR/AFTER
   0030Z. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THE APEX OF A BOWING...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS
   SURGING NEWD AROUND 50-55 KT OFF THE SRN-WI SHORELINE. THE MCS WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD/EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSE A RISK
   FOR DMGG WINDS AS INFLOW OVER LOWER MI IS CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500
   J/KG OF MLCAPE. A WELL DEFINED MCV/BOOKEND VORTEX AT THE NRN FLANK
   OF THE MCS WILL AID IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION OVER THE STABLE LAKE
   WATERS TO THE LOWER MI COASTLINE. THE APX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 50 KT
   OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE MCS
   THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AMIDST RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43698659 44488628 44928541 44688413 43438406 42348516
               42358633 43698659 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 01, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities