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Mesoscale Discussion 1224
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092021Z - 092145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
   CENTRAL ND JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE
   LIKELY ELEVATED AS THEY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL RESULT IN FURTHER EROSION OF WEAK
   CAPPING DOWNSTREAM WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE RESULTED WEAK TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME. 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40-55 KT WILL FAVOR
   SUPERCELLS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. INITIALLY...SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN TREAT WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7
   DEG C/KM NOTED IN 20Z MESOANALYSIS. AS STORMS BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED...AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
   SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING BOW AS FURTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN ND.
   SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN EVOLUTION OF CURRENT ISOLATED CELLS
   AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48990063 49059978 48899904 48119801 47449736 46609693
               46129703 45989726 45969786 46139863 46609955 47690076
               48260107 48800100 48990063 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2016
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