Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1224
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1224 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NE MO THRU PARTS OF NW/W CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 367...

   VALID 282256Z - 290030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 367 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD AREAS IN AND AROUND THE GREATER ST. LOUIS
   METROPOLITAN REGION THROUGH 01-02Z.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS...SOMEWHAT SMALL...BUT
   VIGOROUS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS BEING AIDED BY
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING ONE OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DIGGING
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.

   ACTIVITY HAS INITIATED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT
   APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG... BUT AT
   LEAST ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
   TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE INTO A SOMEWHAT COOLER
   AND LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  INTERFERENCE FROM OTHER STORMS COULD
   ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO OVERALL STORM SUSTENANCE.  IT REMAINS
   UNCLEAR WHETHER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE REGION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION. 

   DESPITE THESE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTORS...THERE STILL APPEARS A
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH AROUND 01-02Z...FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE
   OF STORMS TO EMERGE WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.  PERHAPS OF MORE CONCERN...20-30 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR AT
   LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WITH ANY OF THE POTENTIALLY
   STRONGER EMERGING STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..KERR.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...

   LAT...LON   39279208 40839227 39739053 39068895 38328931 37949009
               37879099 38059169 38489240 39279208 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 29, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities