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Mesoscale Discussion 1225
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282316Z - 290115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.

   DISCUSSION...SPORADIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A PLUME
   OF GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND LIGHT
   UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AREA VWP DATA
   CONFIRM MID-LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 20-30 KT...WITH THE BULK OF
   STRONGER N/NWLYS CONFINED TO THE LOWER PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THE
   PRESENCE OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS TO FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THIS RISK SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET OWING TO
   THE LACK OF GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44950638 44640548 43540500 41330395 40680384 40380441
               40350510 40950607 42110716 43080781 43850786 44920708
               44950638 

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