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Mesoscale Discussion 1226
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...CNTRL/WRN IL...FAR NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 010026Z - 010230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS...LARGE
   HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEPOSITED BY AN EARLIER MCS
   ARCS FROM CNTRL IL INTO S-CNTRL IA. SFC PRESSURE FALLS N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY INDUCED BY WARM ADVECTION SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT
   NWD INTO THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST BUOYANCY...WITH AROUND 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
   SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILX RAOB AIDED BY A 18-G/KG LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
   MIXING RATIO BENEATH AN H7-H5 LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5 C/KM. WITH THE
   MOST PROMINENT ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAVING OCCURRED
   ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN WI...STORMS FROM SRN IA TO NRN MO WILL
   HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FURTHER INTENSIFY EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
   AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS AMIDST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT. IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR -- PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   40679243 41309230 41669099 41628922 40708896 40068933
               40089045 40419186 40679243 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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