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Mesoscale Discussion 1226
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN MO INTO SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290239Z - 290345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 367 MAY BE EXTENDED IN AREA/TIME LOCALLY.
   OTHERWISE...A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 368 WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT ITS 06Z
   EXPIRATION...IF IT IS NOT CANCELLED EARLIER.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH NOT CLEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED STORM
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO WAS SUPPORTED BY
   ENHANCEMENT OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
   SPEED MAXIMUM.  NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS FORCING
   WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG THE
   INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 04-06Z.

   IN GENERAL...THOUGH...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED
   WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
   SOUTHERN KANSAS.  PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN
   TRANSITIONING DOWNWARD IN WEAKER /AND WANING/ BOUNDARY LAYER
   INSTABILITY.  THESE GENERAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38859002 38868804 37588810 36629082 36699193 37449277
               38089091 38859002 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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