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Mesoscale Discussion 1227
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NW WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291706Z - 291830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW WI.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS IA INTO SE MN AND NW WI WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE MLCAPE
   IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF DULUTH SHOW ABOUT 25
   KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CELL ORGANIZATION AND
   SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INSTABILITY
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER MULTICELLS. A WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF A
   BOWING LINE SEGMENT OR COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   47159078 47189212 46679366 45419413 44699438 44229425
               43919355 44039262 44159203 44389154 44779113 46228979
               47159078 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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