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Mesoscale Discussion 1228
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far NE Texas...Western and Central

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...

   Valid 040551Z - 040745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat is expected to decrease
   over the next couple of hours as a convective line moves eastward
   into western Arkansas. Weather watch issuance should not be needed
   to the east of WW 394.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a linear MCS moving
   through eastern Oklahoma. Although satellite shows warming tops with
   the linear MCS, the convective line is being supported by a southern
   Plains shortwave trough evident on water-vapor imagery. Surface
   analysis shows a moist airmass ahead of the line with surface
   dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. This is resulting in moderate
   instability across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. This
   should enable the line to remain intact over the next couple of
   hours. However, the WSR-88D VWPs at Fort Smith, AR and Little Rock,
   AR suggest that deep-layer shear weakens with eastward extent. This
   along with dropping surface temperatures should result in a gradual
   weakening of the MCS over the next hour or two.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36109525 35459539 34889575 34389642 33939649 33449544
               33269450 33469327 33899254 34699233 35689249 35989389

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