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Mesoscale Discussion 1228
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA...KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291752Z - 292015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS HIGHLIGHT
   CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE
   AXIS RUNNING APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SW OF A SFC CYCLONE
   NEAR CINCINNATI. THE AIR MASS SE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE OWING TO DIABATIC SFC HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MIDDLE 60S. THIS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
   SW AND CNTRL KENTUCKY NEWD TO A MULTI-WARM-FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
   ERN/NRN KY TO THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM-SECTOR
   CAPPING...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE TROUGH AND IN
   THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN KY. THE LOUISVILLE
   VWP SAMPLES AROUND 20-35 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-5-KM AGL LAYER...WHICH
   WILL LIKELY FOSTER EWD-SPREADING MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A
   FEW SUSTAINED DISCRETE CELLS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
   SVR RISK WOULD THEN SPREAD INTO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS FARTHER
   E/N INTO ERN/NRN KY...SRN OH...AND WRN WV WITH TIME -- ESPECIALLY
   LATER IN THE AFTERNOON -- WHERE AIR-MASS RECOVERY IS ONGOING OR HAS
   YET TO BEGIN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP. AS THE
   MULTI-WARM-FRONTAL ZONE BRANCHING SE/E OF THE SFC CYCLONE ADVANCES
   NWD...AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SPREAD N OF THE OHIO
   RIVER...WHILE NEAR-SFC WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BACKED IN THE
   SHELTERED/DESTABILIZING PBL. THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SRH
   AND YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK/SHORT-DURATION TORNADO OR TWO --
   ESPECIALLY IN SRN OHIO...NERN KY...AND FAR WRN WV. THIS IS
   CONSISTENT WITH THE JACKSON KY VWP THAT PRESENTLY DEPICTS AROUND
   150-175 M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH.

   HOWEVER...REGION-WIDE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTABLY MORE POOR
   IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX -- PER 12Z ILN RAOB -- THAN THEY WERE IN
   PREVIOUS DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE
   VORT-MAX PRECEDING LOBE OF ASCENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING
   ENE/NE OF THE DESTABILIZING PBL. THESE FACTORS CAST CONSIDERABLE
   DOUBT ON OVERALL CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND THE NEED FOR A WW.
   REGARDLESS...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AMIDST AREAS
   OF DESTABILIZATION TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36868516 37338730 38258579 39268477 39668411 39738277
               39418172 38568169 37278318 36868516 

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