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Mesoscale Discussion 1228
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 376...

   VALID 010048Z - 010145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 376 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK TRANSITIONING MORE TO DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AS
   CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR ALONG COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   DISCUSSION...THE EARLIER SUPERCELL ACROSS N CENTRAL MO APPEARS TO
   HAVE WEAKENED IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES...WHILE NEW STORMS HAVE FORMED
   ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NW MO.  A VERY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ACROSS NRN MO TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND
   VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE IA/MO BORDER.
    THUS...THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED
   TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES...WHICH FAVORS DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.  STILL...AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH CONVECTION INTERACTING
   WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE E-W OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER.

   ..THOMPSON.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40299073 40009136 39669292 39519395 39419448 39249514
               39339538 39629537 40239434 40679355 40719291 40709202
               40709128 40569069 40299073 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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