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Mesoscale Discussion 1229
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1229
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Areas affected...eastern North Dakota...northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 042033Z - 042300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will begin forming after 21Z across
   northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota, becoming most
   numerous after 00Z. At least isolated large hail and severe wind
   gusts are expected. A watch is likely, perhaps in the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues ahead of a cold front which
   extends from southern Manitoba into western SD. A plume of better
   low-level moisture continues to spread northward with axis across
   western MN and toward the Red River. Here, dewpoints are in the mid
   to upper 60s with precipitable water values in excess of 1.30".
   This, combined with steep lapse rates aloft are producing MUCAPE of
   3000-4000 J/kg. 

   The cold front will drift southward with time, as a weak low
   amplitude shortwave trough passes to the north. Several more hours
   of heating along with lift along the front will lead to scattered
   storms, with large hail and damaging wind expected. Winds veer with
   height, but are relatively weak, thus brief supercells are possible
   but an eventual MCS is expected.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48819461 48749424 48689387 48589363 48679304 48629281
               48509250 48379198 48239178 46729322 46389386 46289517
               46279718 46469839 46949882 49049780 49049522 49469518
               49419485 49159470 48819461 

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