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Mesoscale Discussion 1229
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291919Z - 292145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN THE
   1930Z-2100Z TIME FRAME AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR RISK. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT EMANATING FROM A WAVY
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM E-CNTRL PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE TO S-CNTRL NM...ALONG WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS -- LOCALLY BOLSTERED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SRN
   FRINGES OF REMNANT CLOUDS OVER NERN NM AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE --
   WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AMIDST THESE REGIMES. THE
   PRESENCE OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING. ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD
   ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND W TX WHERE VWPS
   SAMPLE 20-25-KT MID-LEVEL NLYS THAT MAY FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED...SWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.
   HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...AND LACKING
   DEEP ASCENT...SVR COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32440626 33470682 35020648 35700592 35660528 35080473
               34890413 34690340 35050230 35480120 35360022 34220028
               32830277 32370478 32440626 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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