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Mesoscale Discussion 1230
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291949Z - 292215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
   UNDERWAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS FROM MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR. WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...VISUAL OBSERVATIONS FROM OUTSIDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
   CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA CONFIRM CUMULUS BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL
   AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE LYING
   E-W -- PARALLEL TO/JUST S OF THE INTERSTATE-40 CORRIDOR -- WITHIN
   WHICH POCKETS OF CUMULUS BUILDUP/TOWERING CUMULUS ARE EVIDENT PER
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEPER
   CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING. WITH
   TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE
   FRONTAL ZONE...AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MLCINH CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE IN PLACE -- AIDED BY DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. THIS
   WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS DESPITE THE PAUCITY OF
   ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE TLX VWP.
   REGARDLESS...LARGE DCAPE -- AROUND 1500 J/KG -- OFFERED BY
   STEEPENING TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW 
   WINDS -- POTENTIALLY BECOMING LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SVR. SMALL HAIL
   CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE PHASES. WEAK
   DEEP ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND THE LACKING DEEP SHEAR
   WILL LARGELY LIMIT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
   TSTMS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
   FACILITATES GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34599564 34639778 34839967 35399996 35719956 35559783
               35489569 35389445 35069437 34829467 34599564 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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