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Mesoscale Discussion 1230
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0906 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...

   VALID 010206Z - 010330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES IN REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WWS 375/378.

   DISCUSSION...A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TRACKING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA. FORWARD MOTION HAS DECELERATED AS THIS
   SYSTEM HAS OUTPACED STRONGER DEEP SHEAR UPSTREAM AND ENTERED A
   NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
   PRINCIPAL MCV TRACKING NEWD INTO NOTABLY LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   THETA-E IN NRN LOWER MI...THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
   NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS BOLSTERED DURING PRIOR MCS
   MATURATION. THIS RISK WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED OVER THE SRN FLANK OF
   THE MCS WHERE INFLOW BUOYANCY IS SLIGHTLY GREATER IN NRN INDIANA AND
   FAR SRN LOWER MI.

   ..COHEN.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41358688 42218586 43268532 44378521 44368422 42798449
               41658550 41358688 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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