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Mesoscale Discussion 1230
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Areas affected...East-central NM...Western TX Panhandle/TX South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042144Z - 042345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions
   of east-central NM and the western TX Panhandle/TX South Plains for
   the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convective line that initiated near
   over northeast NM continues to move south-southeastward along the
   TX/NM border vicinity north of I-40. Some other more cellular
   development has occurred along the lee troughing farther south into
   more of southeast NM (to the north of SRR). The more linear
   development is expected to continue forward propagating
   south-southeastward along the cold pool. Some additional development
   is possible eastward into more of the central TX Panhandle (near
   DUX). Given the high LCLs and large temperature-dewpoint spreads,
   some gusty winds are possible along the leading edge of the cold
   pool for the next several hours. Storm interactions and/or new storm
   development could lead to short-lived updraft intensification and
   the possibility for hail. However, the lack of stronger shear and a
   deep, warm sub-cloud layer should keep the hail threat very low.
   Some modest strengthening of the mid-level flow is possible later
   this evening, resulting in the potential for faster
   forward-propagation and more widespread damaging wind gusts.
   Uncertainty with that scenario is still high, leading to lower watch
   probabilities, but convective trends across the region will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 07/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34180458 35020415 35570365 35990191 34640217 33960262
               33380361 33410465 34180458 

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