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Mesoscale Discussion 1231
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA...NE ORE...CNTRL AND NRN ID...WRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291954Z - 292130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT APPEARS
   UNLIKELY ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW IN SE WA WITH A
   SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN WA AND SSWWD ACROSS CNTRL ORE.
   SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S F.
   INSTABILITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE HIGHEST FROM NE ORE EWD ACROSS NCNTRL
   ID WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO IN THE
   UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. CONVECTION IS INITIATING NEAR THE MAX IN
   INSTABILITY...IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BITTEROOT RANGE ALONG THE
   ID-MT STATE-LINE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING THE HRRR
   CONTINUE TO EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THIS GENERAL AREA AND WWD
   ACROSS NCNTRL ID INTO NERN ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...THE PENDLETON ORE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN
   THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 50 KT OF FLOW NEAR 6 KM AGL. THE STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS DOWNDRAFTS
   MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   45071949 44511928 44131820 44121494 44291363 44771258
               45391251 46041309 47161464 47831619 48021692 47851790
               47111856 45621925 45071949 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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