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Mesoscale Discussion 1231
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA/NRN IOWA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...

   VALID 100848Z - 101015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SOME RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
   SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING STORMS CONTINUES...AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD
   SOUTH OF WATCH 367 SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A NEW
   SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...FROM NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED VORTEX...TO THE
   NORTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR BROOKINGS SD.  RECENT
   RAPID REFRESH AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY MAY
   ADVANCE AT LEAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER AREA BY
   11-12Z... BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING.  WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY TO THE
   COOL/DRY SIDE OF AN EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY
   COOL...THERE IS LITTLE OBVIOUS TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE
   FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED PLAINS SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AND MID/UPPER
   SUPPORT REMAINS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS
   CONSIDERABLY FURTHER...IT MAY NOT YET BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
   MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 50+ KT REAR INFLOW JET COULD REACH THE
   SURFACE WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 07/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44059659 44419513 45049417 44649331 43719258 43039275
               42889461 42999620 43739685 44059659 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2016
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