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Mesoscale Discussion 1232
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1232
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0558 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042258Z - 050100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms will persist through the
   evening hours, with an attendant threat of gusty, damaging winds and
   isolated marginally severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by a convectively modified shortwave trough
   currently over the Ozarks, thunderstorms have organized across the
   region early this evening. Despite relatively weak tropospheric
   flow, a few cells have reached severe limits, supported by rich
   boundary layer moisture and ample surface heating. Furthermore, a
   remnant outflow boundary across east-central Arkansas has served as
   a focus for eastward storm propagation this evening. Anvil-layer
   flow is not particularly favorable for the development of a trailing
   precipitation shield (which would enhance cold pool formation), but
   warm/moist low levels will encourage a damaging wind threat in
   stronger cores. Additionally, updraft accelerations may be
   sufficiently strong for marginally severe hail at times. However, as
   these cells are likely diurnally enhanced, they are expected to
   gradually weaken later this evening, and watch issuance is not
   expected.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34829168 35599020 35888896 35718846 35218827 34438852
               33868940 33539053 33609179 33999218 34439195 34109213
               34829168 

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