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Mesoscale Discussion 1232
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...

   VALID 292030Z - 292200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES...CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING-VALID PORTIONS OF TORNADO
   WATCH 369.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES 2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
   1.5 MB CONCENTRATED FROM SRN OHIO INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND ERN
   KY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED W OF DAYTON. THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE
   BEING LOCALLY ENCOURAGED BY POCKETS OF INSOLATION-INDUCED DIABATIC
   SFC HEATING NEAR/S OF A WARM FRONT BRANCHING ESE FROM THE LOW. THE
   HEATING IS FACILITATING MODIFICATION OF ANTECEDENT COOLER/SHELTERED
   AIR WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH --
   REF. WILMINGTON OHIO AND JACKSON KENTUCKY VWPS SAMPLING AROUND 100
   M2/S2 OF 0-1-KM SRH WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. THIS
   WILL CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NERN KY INTO SRN OHIO AND FAR WRN WV AS
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST PBL AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE-60S
   SFC DEWPOINTS OCCURS. OCCASIONAL ROTATING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM
   SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA IN THIS REGIME. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS
   ORGANIZING INTO MORE OF A MULTICELL-CLUSTER MODE FARTHER SW INTO
   CNTRL KY...WHERE A DMGG-WIND RISK WILL CONTINUE.

   ..COHEN.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37108645 39678387 39678108 37088374 37108645 

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Page last modified: June 29, 2015
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