Mesoscale Discussion 1233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the southern Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...
Valid 050212Z - 050345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat may be maximizing at present
across west Texas, with a gradual downturn in the threat expected
through the early overnight. To the north/east of Watch 397, other
strong to briefly severe storms will likely continue to evolve
through the early overnight hours. However, new watch issuance
appears unlikely at present.
DISCUSSION...A mature, forward-propagating convective complex is
accelerating southeast across west Texas this evening, with multiple
wind gusts of 60-65 mph having been reported. While the leading edge
of outflow had become somewhat decoupled from deeper updrafts, a
merger of outflow boundaries northwest of Lubbock has recently
bolstered the vigor of this complex. In turn, damaging winds should
remain a threat in the near term. However, through the late
evening/overnight hours, this threat should gradually diminish as
new updrafts ingest outflow-cooled air to the southeast.
Elsewhere, two clusters of strong/severe storms (one over the TX
Panhandle and another over northwest TX) have been driven largely by
propagation along outflow. While these cells may weaken some with a
nocturnal increase in convective inhibition, cells may blossom along
a remnant boundary from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma,
aided by modest warm-air advection early tonight. While overall
coverage/organization will likely be insufficient for watch
issuance, some of these storms may be capable of strong, gusty winds
and isolated severe hail.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33370305 34000257 34580198 35740212 36070183 35669954
35149888 33679869 32619989 32610217 32960297 33370305