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Mesoscale Discussion 1233
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the southern Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

   Valid 050212Z - 050345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat may be maximizing at present
   across west Texas, with a gradual downturn in the threat expected
   through the early overnight. To the north/east of Watch 397, other
   strong to briefly severe storms will likely continue to evolve
   through the early overnight hours. However, new watch issuance
   appears unlikely at present.

   DISCUSSION...A mature, forward-propagating convective complex is
   accelerating southeast across west Texas this evening, with multiple
   wind gusts of 60-65 mph having been reported. While the leading edge
   of outflow had become somewhat decoupled from deeper updrafts, a
   merger of outflow boundaries northwest of Lubbock has recently
   bolstered the vigor of this complex. In turn, damaging winds should
   remain a threat in the near term. However, through the late
   evening/overnight hours, this threat should gradually diminish as
   new updrafts ingest outflow-cooled air to the southeast.

   Elsewhere, two clusters of strong/severe storms (one over the TX
   Panhandle and another over northwest TX) have been driven largely by
   propagation along outflow. While these cells may weaken some with a
   nocturnal increase in convective inhibition, cells may blossom along
   a remnant boundary from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma,
   aided by modest warm-air advection early tonight. While overall
   coverage/organization will likely be insufficient for watch
   issuance, some of these storms may be capable of strong, gusty winds
   and isolated severe hail.

   ..Picca.. 07/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33370305 34000257 34580198 35740212 36070183 35669954
               35149888 33679869 32619989 32610217 32960297 33370305 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2017
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