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Mesoscale Discussion 1234
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OHIO...KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
   TENNESSEE/WEST VIRGINIA/VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 369...

   VALID 292227Z - 300000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 369 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...KENTUCKY AND SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
   THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
   00-02Z TIME FRAME.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL BE
   NEEDED...EITHER EAST OR SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 369...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...DOWNSTREAM OF AT LEAST ONE IN
   A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC
   FLOW...MAY BE ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
   WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW.  THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
   MIGRATING EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS.  SO WHILE STORMS ARE TENDING TO SPREAD FROM A MORE
   MOIST/STRONGLY HEATED AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO A LESS
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THERE COULD STILL BE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS THOUGH EARLY EVENING.

   DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER AND MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING...
   STORMS ARE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE CELLS WITH
   OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES...AND SMALL MULTICELL STORM
   CLUSTERS...IN THE PRESENCE OF RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  DEEP
   LAYER...AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MAY BE ENHANCED A BIT ALONG THE
   EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WHERE A TORNADO
   MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.  OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY NOW BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
   WITH STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...AND DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
   AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

   ..KERR.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37158736 38308500 39308407 39278253 38578115 37018314
               35698609 35538897 36488887 37158736 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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