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Mesoscale Discussion 1234
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...FAR NW MO AND PORTIONS OF WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101755Z - 101930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...NEW...ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE IA ALONG
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STORMS WERE TRACKING ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT
   OVERALL LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BUT WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT WHEN COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM
   FOR SOME HAIL. FURTHERMORE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL
   FOCUS...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND/OR SHORT-LIVED AND A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 07/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41479192 41609145 41419075 41059040 40849036 40539050
               40359063 40189094 40099149 40109164 40239248 40489312
               40679327 40839322 40959294 41099253 41479192 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2016
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