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Mesoscale Discussion 1235
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292232Z - 300000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL POSE A LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUST THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
   ISOLATED AND SPORADIC NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED
   UNLESS SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION TOWARD A FORWARD PROPAGATING
   STORM CLUSTER HAPPENS TO OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
   MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
   AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 25-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
   BRIEF...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...BUT LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND MORE
   MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT WILL LIMIT
   LONGEVITY/ORGANIZATION. THESE STORMS MOVING OFF THE RIM...ALONG WITH
   MORE ISOLATED CELLS BETWEEN PHX AND TUS...WILL POSE A STRONG WIND
   RISK GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH A DRY SUB-CLOUD
   LAYER...AS EVIDENT IN 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS AND 22Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   STRONG OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
   BLOWING DUST. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED...UNLESS BETTER ORGANIZATION THROUGH STORM
   MERGERS/INTERACTIONS LEADS TO FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER.

   ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32661334 33331342 33761343 34341334 34791292 34911236
               34851155 34371096 33981062 33091038 32511063 32071101
               31781142 31651196 31881261 32021297 32661334 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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