MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL OK...WRN PORTIONS OF N TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191840Z - 192015Z
   
   A THREAT FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
   DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SWRN/CENTRAL OK AS WELL AS
   WRN PORTIONS OF N TX. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING E
   ACROSS NEB/KS...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 70+ KT MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
   STREAK /PER REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK/. THE RRQ OF THIS UPPER JET IS
   FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...PROVIDING A
   SOURCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUBSEQUENT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.
   MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY AN MCV/ EMBEDDED WITHIN
   MOIST/TROPICAL SLY FLOW REGIME OVER WRN TX WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING
   NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARD WRN PORTIONS OF N TX AND SWRN OK. 
   
   MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF OK HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM
   THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY LATE MORNING...WHILE SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS AIRMASS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY...WITH MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 12Z OUN RAOB
   YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN
   WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE
   REGION...COMBINATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER AIR FEATURES AND
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WITH APPROACHING W TX DISTURBANCE. THOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...30-40 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW MAY RESULT IN MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/19/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   34700001 35909875 36519704 36519586 35999559 34609627
               33259762 32589963 32850052 33660060 34700001