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Mesoscale Discussion 1236
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

   Areas affected...Southwest ND...Western SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052009Z - 052215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
   over the next hour or two. Some strong/severe winds gusts are
   possible with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown increased cu
   development across the region as convective inhibition erodes under
   strong insolation. Current surface observations across the region
   reveal temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s with dewpoints
   mixed out into the upper 40s. In spite of this deep mixing, steep
   mid-level lapse rates are still contributing to modest instability
   and the latest mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg. The
   continued erosion of convective inhibition coupled with modest
   instability and weak forcing for ascent provided by a shortwave
   trough moving through the Canadian prairie provinces is expected to
   result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
   Shear profiles are supportive of a few more organized/persistent
   storms and the potential for some damaging wind gusts. Given the
   steep lapse rates and shear in the hail growth zone, some large hail
   is also possible, although the high cloud bases and warm boundary
   layer will result in substantial melting. Current expectation are
   for the severe coverage to be too low for watch issuance but
   convective trends across the region will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46960394 47480356 47460220 46430164 43940158 43320246
               43590374 45430398 46960394 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2017
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