Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052246Z - 060015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of
strong, gusty winds capable of localized damage through mid evening.
However, they should lack sufficient organization to require a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to marginally severe storms are
evolving eastward across the Southeast early this evening, aided by
propagation along cold pools and enhanced by any mergers of outflow.
A well-mixed (i.e., steep low-level lapse rates) and moist boundary
layer will continue to offer a localized damaging wind potential
with stronger downdrafts. Forecast soundings also suggest drier
mid-level air over parts of the region may enhance cold-pool
generation and the resultant wind threat briefly this evening.
However, modest/weak tropospheric flow will likely keep storms
rather disorganized, with movement driven by a combination of weak
westerly mid-level winds and propagation along localized corridors
of greater instability. Therefore, watch issuance is not
anticipated. Storms should gradually weaken later this evening, as
surface-based buoyancy wanes and inhibition increases.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33348668 34118480 35338154 35418019 35367919 34827849
34127844 33837908 33797925 32648274 32448409 32818605