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Mesoscale Discussion 1237
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL / N-CNTRL AND W-CNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301259Z - 301500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
   AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A MCV LOCATED 35 MI ENE CBM MOVING
   ESEWD AND EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS N-CNTRL AL THIS MORNING.  A BELT
   OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /30 KT AT
   H5/ SAMPLED ON THE 12Z BMX RAOB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. 
   MODERATE BUOYANCY /1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WITH AMPLE PW OBSERVED ON
   THE BMX RAOB WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM
   THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 
   UPSTREAM OF THE MCV...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS
   WILL PIVOT INTO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEND AT LEAST
   LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR A CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY AS THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE AL/GA VICINITY.
   THEREFORE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY IS FORECAST WITH
   PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF
   STORMS CAN DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EVOLVING
   CLUSTER.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32368628 33928564 34348504 34318381 33758327 32718361
               32008422 31878529 32368628 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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