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Mesoscale Discussion 1237
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052246Z - 060015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat of
   strong, gusty winds capable of localized damage through mid evening.
   However, they should lack sufficient organization to require a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to marginally severe storms are
   evolving eastward across the Southeast early this evening, aided by
   propagation along cold pools and enhanced by any mergers of outflow.
   A well-mixed (i.e., steep low-level lapse rates) and moist boundary
   layer will continue to offer a localized damaging wind potential
   with stronger downdrafts. Forecast soundings also suggest drier
   mid-level air over parts of the region may enhance cold-pool
   generation and the resultant wind threat briefly this evening.
   However, modest/weak tropospheric flow will likely keep storms
   rather disorganized, with movement driven by a combination of weak
   westerly mid-level winds and propagation along localized corridors
   of greater instability. Therefore, watch issuance is not
   anticipated. Storms should gradually weaken later this evening, as
   surface-based buoyancy wanes and inhibition increases.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 07/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33348668 34118480 35338154 35418019 35367919 34827849
               34127844 33837908 33797925 32648274 32448409 32818605
               33348668 

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