Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1238
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1238 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301603Z - 301830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
   CONVECTION DEEPENING BETWEEN CINCINNATI AND DAYTON AND WWD INTO
   PARTS OF SRN INDIANA AMIDST BROAD/MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
   SWLY/WSWLY FLOW. THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB SAMPLED LITTLE
   CAPPING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DCVA
   PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /PRESENTLY OVER INDIANA/ CROSSES THE
   AREA AND THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   WILL FAVOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WITH 20-40 KT
   OF FLOW IN THE 1.0-3.5-KM-AGL LAYER SAMPLED BY THE ILN VWP ENHANCING
   CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS. ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...THOUGH
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39298541 40738259 41068032 40437954 39228042 38148299
               38208548 39298541 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 30, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities