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Mesoscale Discussion 1239
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE INDIANA...SW OH...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010656Z - 010800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LINE OF STRONG
   TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SEWD ACROSS SE INDIANA INTO NRN KY AND
   SW OH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING MORE
   MARGINAL. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM CNTRL KY INTO SE INDIANA AND SW OH WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
   CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE
   2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE BY RAP-V2 DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
   VWP AT WILMINGTON OH SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND PROFILE ABOVE
   A HALF KM. THIS COMBINED WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AROUND 40
   KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT EARLY
   THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE APPROACHES
   THE CINCINNATI OH AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MARGINAL
   ACROSS SRN OH AND ERN KY WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40638414 40338508 39338638 38658545 38258381 38878302
               40028258 40638414 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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