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Mesoscale Discussion 1239
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0735 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...N-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369...

   VALID 110035Z - 110130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS SPREADING EWD INTO
   S-CNTRL ND. TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE LINE IS
   BUILDING INTO NWRN SD...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   NEW WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS AREA.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING TSTM LINE FOCUSED
   ACROSS SWRN ND EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DMGG WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL...WITH THE FORMER THREAT BEING LOCALLY ENHANCED WITHIN
   EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. A 51 KT GUST WAS REPORTED AT KDIK AT
   2344Z. CURRENT MOTION OF THIS LINE WAS ESTIMATED E AT AROUND 25
   KT...AND MAY REACH THE BISMARCK ND AREA 230-300Z. CONVECTION ACROSS
   NWRN ND HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HR...BUT THE AIR MASS
   IN N-CNTRL ND IS STILL MOIST/UNSTABLE AND REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
   POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. 

   MEANWHILE...TSTMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN FLANK
   OF THE LINE INTO NWRN SD. SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...A NEW SMALL WATCH MAY BE
   NECESSARY ACROSS N-CNTRL SD...WHERE A RESERVOIR OF ESTIMATED
   3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS POSITIONED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   48949813 46779827 45329884 44900099 45480279 47250293
               48980196 48949813 

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Page last modified: July 11, 2016
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