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Mesoscale Discussion 1239
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AL...SRN AND CNTRL GA...FL PANHANDLE...NRN
   FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301617Z - 301745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN AL...THE
   FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. SFC TEMPS HAVE
   WARMED TO NEAR 90 F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A MAXIMA
   IN INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE MLCAPE IS
   ESTIMATED AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
   FROM NEAR THIS MAXIMA NEWD ACROSS SRN GA. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 30
   KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 6 KM LAYER SHOULD ENABLE CELLS TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30158583 29918407 29808304 30128245 31178235 31798246
               32258284 32458356 31958486 31268567 30808612 30388618
               30158583 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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