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Mesoscale Discussion 1240
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1240
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Dakota into
   northwestern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 060251Z - 060445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with an area of developing
   thunderstorms appears likely to increase across the region by the 11
   PM - 1 AM CDT time frame.  Trends are being monitored for a possible
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...An area of developing thunderstorms spreading across
   southeastern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba probably is
   being supported by an area of enhanced low-level warm advection,
   downstream of a short wave impulse digging across the Canadian
   Prairies.  Trailing the more prominent mid-level wave now digging to
   the southwest of Hudson Bay, this feature appears likely to continue
   into/across the central Canadian/U.S. border area overnight, as
   upstream ridging builds through the Canadian Rockies.  As it does,
   forcing for ascent to maintain ongoing development, and support
   further upscale convective growth, may overspread the North
   Dakota/Manitoba border area as early as 04-06z.  Guidance is
   suggestive that this could be preceded by additional thunderstorm
   development within a strengthening band of downstream lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, across northeastern North Dakota into
   northwestern Minnesota, perhaps aided by the nocturnal southerly
   low-level jet as it begins to reach its peak intensity.

   Given strong deep layer shear (supported by veering winds with
   height beneath 40 kt northwesterly 500 mb flow), and thermodynamic
   profiles characterized by steep lapse rates (above the decoupling
   boundary layer) and sizable CAPE, the environment appears more than
   conducive to organized severe storms, including supercells.   This
   seems likely to be accompanied by a risk for severe hail and strong,
   potentially damaging, surface gusts.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48459481 47429498 46959617 47689817 48169954 48880082
               49549748 49159593 48459481 

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