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Mesoscale Discussion 1240
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OH...SE LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382...

   VALID 010805Z - 010900Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
   HOUR ACROSS SE LOWER MI AND POSSIBLY FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS CNTRL
   AND NRN OH. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL AND
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...TWO LINE SEGMENTS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED IN SERN LOWER
   MI. THERE IS MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
   WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D
   VWP AT DETROIT MI SHOWS PRE-CONVECTIVE UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS
   WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE 45 KT EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LINE
   ALONG WITH 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS THE LINE CROSSES INTO SWRN ONTARIO.

   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS
   WRN OH INTO SE IND. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE
   LINE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO
   THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND
   ERN OH SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY WITH THE THREAT
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE DAYBREAK.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...

   LAT...LON   43128280 40608386 39578439 39758260 41518182 42648156
               43128280 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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