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Mesoscale Discussion 1241
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southern South Dakota into northern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060328Z - 060530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Perhaps some continuing risk for marginally severe hail
   and gusty surface winds with storms overspreading the region by 12-1
   AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Some consolidation/intensification and upscale growth
   of thunderstorms that initiated within the hot and deeply mixed late
   afternoon boundary layer has occurred during the past hour or two
   south of the Pierre/Huron areas.  This appears to have coincided
   with increasingly moist and potentially unstable inflow, as activity
   propagated southward into a modest nocturnally strengthening
   southerly low-level jet (around 30 kt across north central Nebraska
   into east central South Dakota).  

   Based on the latest objective instability analysis, it seems
   possible that activity may maintain strength while propagating
   across the state border into north central/northeastern Nebraska by
   05-06Z.  Thereafter, weakening and more stable inflow seems likely
   to result in diminishing convective trends.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43070028 43229967 43369902 43709821 43529742 42889688
               42269740 42179965 42480061 43070028 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2017
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