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Mesoscale Discussion 1241
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301638Z - 301815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   FROM ERN LA AND SRN MS EWD INTO THE SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
   LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
   ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND SW AL WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO
   THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION. DUE TO THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG
   INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE WHICH SHOULD
   HELP GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. THIS IS
   CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE
   JACKSON WSR-88D VWP...WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 30 TO 35
   KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON AND DUE TO THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN
   ORGANIZE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED
   IN THE LINE.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30368640 30288795 30288944 30399059 30929124 31609108
               32139040 31878768 31768608 30368640 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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