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Mesoscale Discussion 1241
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL PA/WRN...CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
   UPSTATE NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011545Z - 011715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS...SOME BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
   FROM NWRN PA AND WRN NY AND DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   PA...AND CENTRAL TO UPSTATE NY.  INITIAL STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG A
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ENHANCED SOME BY THE SRN-ERN LAKE ERIE
   LAKE BREEZE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A MORE
   WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NY BY 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PER TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN ONTARIO...APPROACHING SWRN QUEBEC
   LATE THIS MORNING.  A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS IMPULSE EXTENDED
   FROM SWRN QUEBEC THROUGH SERN ONTARIO TO NEAR TORONTO...AND INTO WRN
   LAKE ERIE.  ONGOING TSTMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   ONTARIO PORTION OF THIS FRONT...THUS FAR.  MEANWHILE...THE AIR MASS
   FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO UPSTATE NY WAS UNDERGOING
   DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD
   COVER ALLOWING FOR RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A MOISTURE
   RICH BOUNDARY LAYER.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LATE MORNING
   MLCAPE RANGED FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WEAK
   CAPPING PER BUF 12Z SOUNDING HAS BEEN ERODED AS CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ARE RESULTING IN CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG A COUPLE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING FROM
   NERN OH/NWRN PA INTO FAR WRN NY.

   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND INVOF
   THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD...REACHING FAR WRN WY /NEAR BUF
   METRO AREA BY 18Z/.  DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...NEGATIVE FACTORS
   POTENTIALLY LIMITING GREATER SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE INCLUDE 1/ WEAK
   FORCING ALOFT AS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC IMPULSE MOVES NEWD AWAY FROM THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND 2/ STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINING N AND NW OF
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.  HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT
   SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY A MULTICELL STORM MODE.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41658019 42217936 43387862 43597681 44037624 44177557
               43307556 42317616 41647677 41467804 41658019 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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