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Mesoscale Discussion 1242
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN MO/NRN AR/PARTS OF SRN IL...WRN
   KY AND NWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011831Z - 011930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO ADJACENT NWRN AR...WITH
   ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH SRN MO...NRN AR TO THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH WW
   ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN
   INCREASING CU FIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MO INTO
   NWRN AR WITH CLOUD APPEARANCE SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS HAD TENDED TO BE
   SUPPRESSED SOME /I.E. INDICATIVE OF A CAP PRESENT IN THIS REGION/. 
   HOWEVER...LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED STRIKES IN SOUTHWEST-SOUTH CENTRAL
   MO...LIKELY ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING INHIBITION/CAP.  ADDITIONAL STORM
   INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE MO PORTION OF A SURFACE
   WIND SHIFT THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL IL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
   TO SWRN MO INTO NERN OK.  THIS INITIATION /SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/ WILL
   BE FURTHER AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH MO TOWARD THE MID MS
   VALLEY.

   VWP DATA PER SGF WSR-88D DETECTED 50-60 KT AT 5-6 KM AGL AND IS
   LIKELY ATTENDANT TO THE MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS WILL ENHANCE
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...RANGING FROM 30-45 KT...WITH THE WEAKER
   VALUES EXPECTED INTO NRN AR.  THIS SHEAR AND A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT ROTATING STRUCTURES.  MOST
   SHORT-TERM MODELS SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36969268 37629184 38148925 37868855 36988842 36228912
               36009000 35739097 35669250 35859352 36299358 36969268 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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