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Mesoscale Discussion 1242
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KY...SRN/ERN WV...WRN VA...WRN
   NC...WRN SC...WRN TN....FAR NERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301655Z - 301930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
   INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSING A
   RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ARE UNDERWAY ALONG
   AN AXIS OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL KY TO MIDDLE
   TN...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EWD
   TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD INSOLATION/DIABATIC SFC
   HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION WITH DEWPOINTS THE
   LOWER/MIDDLE 60S AND MLCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 750-1500 J/KG. WITH
   WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE AND ASCENT OFFERED BY TERRAIN-DRIVEN
   CIRCULATIONS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   ZONES...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EVOLVING INTO EWD-MOVING MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS GIVEN 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUCH RISK WOULD BE
   LOCALLY ENHANCED WHERE LOCAL COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION TAKES PLACE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   FFC...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37468458 37978321 38378171 39177870 38957789 37497872
               35328038 34548207 34868446 35738554 36578558 37468458 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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