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Mesoscale Discussion 1242
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1242
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...Far Northeast South

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

   Valid 060551Z - 060745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
   hours as cells develop and move southeastward into southeastern
   North Dakota and central to northern Minnesota. Wind damage and
   isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Weather watch
   issuance may become necessary across parts of the mesoscale
   discussion area over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong to
   severe thunderstorms over southeastern North Dakota. This activity
   is located along a gradient of moderate instability oriented from
   northwest to southeast from central North Dakota into west-central
   Minnesota. Other strong storms are located in eastern Minnesota. The
   RAP is analyzing a small pocket of strong instability in
   north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated near 3000 J/kg. In
   addition to the instability, water-vapor imagery shows a shortwave
   trough moving southeastward across the northern Plains which will
   provide continued support for thunderstorm development during the
   remainder of the overnight period. The HRRR affirms this thinking by
   developing a cold pool and moving it southeastward into central and
   eastern Minnesota through daybreak. This suggests that the
   wind-damage threat could increase across the Upper Mississippi
   Valley over the next 2 to 3 hours. Isolated large hail will also be
   possible with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45479288 45889191 46479187 47079187 47489268 48009545
               47829730 47309809 46849801 46219697 45139581 45169445

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