Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1243
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1243 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...Upper
   Michigan...Western Lake Superior

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061043Z - 061245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will likely continue as a linear MCS
   moves from far eastern Minnesota across northern Wisconsin into
   Upper Michigan this morning. Weather watch issuance may be needed to
   the east of WW 399 within the next hour depending upon convective

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a linear MCS from just
   west of Duluth, MN extending southward to near the MN-WI stateline
   to the north of Minneapolis, MN. This line is located along a
   corridor of maximized instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE values
   in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range from northeast Minnesota eastward
   into northern Upper Michigan. The instability along with large-scale
   ascent associated with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor
   imagery, will likely maintain the intensity of the line as it moves
   toward the eastern edge of WW 399. The amount of instability
   combined with 0-6 km shear near 35 kt (evident on the Minneapolis
   WSR-88 VWP) should help keep the line organized for a few more
   hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats with the
   stronger parts of the line. A weather watch will need to be
   considered as the convective line approaches the edge of WW 399 in
   the 1130Z to 1200Z timeframe.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   47279222 46389293 45779263 45579186 45578884 45748768
               45938712 46108682 46498673 46948691 47038860 46988990

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: July 06, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities