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Mesoscale Discussion 1243
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...PA...AND ERN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011922Z - 012015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF NY AND PA INTO ERN OH.  SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
   IS UNCERTAIN RESULTING IN THE PROBABILITY FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BEING
   40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WATCH ISSUANCE IS GREATER WITH NWD
   EXTENT INTO UPSTATE NY...GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GREATER DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SRN
   EXTENT/GLANCING EFFECTS OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC.

   LIGHTNING DATA AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED
   TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS NY...WITH MOST RECENT
   ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
   CENTRAL NY...NWRN PA...AND EAST CENTRAL OH.  ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL PA.  WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC WITH THE
   SRN EXTENT OF THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE MOVING THROUGH NRN NY RESULTING
   IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
   MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO UPSTATE NY. 
   WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...THE NRN PORTION ACROSS UPSTATE NY MAY HAVE THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE /HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/...GIVEN
   THE PROXIMITY TO STRONGER SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-40 KT/ ENHANCING
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39977858 39927940 39968031 40128122 40408148 41028134
               41748016 42147805 43137694 43877614 44587562 44907503
               44927402 44087373 42357457 40897622 40137699 39977858 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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