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Mesoscale Discussion 1243
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1243
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...Northern Wisconsin...Upper
   Michigan...Western Lake Superior

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061043Z - 061245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will likely continue as a linear MCS
   moves from far eastern Minnesota across northern Wisconsin into
   Upper Michigan this morning. Weather watch issuance may be needed to
   the east of WW 399 within the next hour depending upon convective
   trends.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a linear MCS from just
   west of Duluth, MN extending southward to near the MN-WI stateline
   to the north of Minneapolis, MN. This line is located along a
   corridor of maximized instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE values
   in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range from northeast Minnesota eastward
   into northern Upper Michigan. The instability along with large-scale
   ascent associated with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor
   imagery, will likely maintain the intensity of the line as it moves
   toward the eastern edge of WW 399. The amount of instability
   combined with 0-6 km shear near 35 kt (evident on the Minneapolis
   WSR-88 VWP) should help keep the line organized for a few more
   hours. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats with the
   stronger parts of the line. A weather watch will need to be
   considered as the convective line approaches the edge of WW 399 in
   the 1130Z to 1200Z timeframe.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   47279222 46389293 45779263 45579186 45578884 45748768
               45938712 46108682 46498673 46948691 47038860 46988990
               47279222 

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