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Mesoscale Discussion 1243
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301701Z - 301830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN GA EWD INTO SC. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
   REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
   PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A POCKET OF
   STRONG INSTABILITY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL GA NEWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG.
   IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT PEACHTREE CITY SHOWS A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW TO
   MID-LEVELS. THIS IS RESULTING IN 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...A BAND OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD HELP
   STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH
   ANY LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN GRADUALLY ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32238197 32148327 32388418 33088483 34118505 34498408
               34678263 34718161 34598091 34508067 34198049 33948043
               33618033 33288029 32848057 32658097 32238197 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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