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Mesoscale Discussion 1244
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/NORTHERN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012129Z - 020000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES A 70-MILE WIDE ZONE OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IN PROXIMITY TO A STALLED FRONT/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM N-CNTRL AR TO WICHITA FALLS TX TO THE TX S
   PLAINS. FRONTAL ASCENT COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENCOURAGED REMOVAL OF
   MLCINH SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED UPTICK IN CONVECTION. STRENGTHENING
   STORMS ARE ALREADY NOTED E OF WICHITA FALLS AND NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNWWD
   ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TX S PLAINS. WITH TEMPERATURES
   HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
   DEWPOINTS...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. FDR
   VWP INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- AROUND 20-30 KT -- WHICH MAY
   FOSTER A FEW PERSISTENT MULTICELL CLUSTERS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS
   AND SVR HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
   HOWEVER...WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT RATHER LIMITED...AND WITHOUT
   STRONGER DEEP SHEAR OR A STRENGTHENING LLJ...PROSPECTS FOR MORE
   ORGANIZED/UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND LARGER COLD POOL GENERATION
   APPEAR LIMITED. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED INTO THE EVENING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32910084 33680024 34809743 35739499 36189316 35479254
               34409443 32609952 32910084 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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