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Mesoscale Discussion 1244
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Western TN...Far southeast VA...Far southwest
   NC...Far northeast AL...northern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061715Z - 061815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon
   with occasionally strong/damaging wind gusts possible.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region are expected to
   persist through the afternoon with additional development possible
   as heating continues to destabilize the downstream airmass.
   Estimated storm motion of the line of storms currently moving
   through eastern TN is 260 at 35-40 kt, taking it to the TN/NC border
   by 18Z. The areal extent of this line may increase with time as it
   interacts with development out ahead of it and/or along its flanks.
   The lack of stronger flow aloft suggests that the widespread
   damaging wind potential is low but the forward propagating nature of
   this line will likely result in some strong wind gusts along the
   leading edge of its outflow. Additionally, water loaded downbursts
   are possible with the more cellular convection farther south across
   northeast AL and northern GA, contributing to an isolated damaging
   wind threat. Uncertainty regarding the overall evolution of the line
   leads to low watch probabilities but convective trends across the
   region will be monitored closely for more organization that might
   require a watch.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   33758528 33848582 34118639 34398668 34658669 34838651
               34978616 35058584 35198538 35738480 36878384 36738253
               35598293 34488357 33768462 33758528 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2017
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