|Mesoscale Discussion 1244|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017
Areas affected...Western TN...Far southeast VA...Far southwest
NC...Far northeast AL...northern GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061715Z - 061815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon
with occasionally strong/damaging wind gusts possible.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region are expected to
persist through the afternoon with additional development possible
as heating continues to destabilize the downstream airmass.
Estimated storm motion of the line of storms currently moving
through eastern TN is 260 at 35-40 kt, taking it to the TN/NC border
by 18Z. The areal extent of this line may increase with time as it
interacts with development out ahead of it and/or along its flanks.
The lack of stronger flow aloft suggests that the widespread
damaging wind potential is low but the forward propagating nature of
this line will likely result in some strong wind gusts along the
leading edge of its outflow. Additionally, water loaded downbursts
are possible with the more cellular convection farther south across
northeast AL and northern GA, contributing to an isolated damaging
wind threat. Uncertainty regarding the overall evolution of the line
leads to low watch probabilities but convective trends across the
region will be monitored closely for more organization that might
require a watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33758528 33848582 34118639 34398668 34658669 34838651
34978616 35058584 35198538 35738480 36878384 36738253
35598293 34488357 33768462 33758528
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