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Mesoscale Discussion 1244
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301738Z - 302015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD
   TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE
   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED
   DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF
   CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN
   PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL
   CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
   CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF
   NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND
   25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE
   INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE
   COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES
   OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE
   ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
   THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35238029 37707863 38757755 38387645 37347636 35757714
               33937872 33947999 35238029 

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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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