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Mesoscale Discussion 1245
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012143Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH NRN
   KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER
   STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM WRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND...SRN IL AND SERN MO. STRONG
   DIABATIC WARMING OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70F
   DEWPOINTS/ HAS RESULTED IN STRONG INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR. TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
   AND WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY
   RESIDES SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   MULTICELLS. THE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL /CURRENTLY
   IN WW 383/ ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A LINE AND WILL
   SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EWD...POSING A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   38658683 39218566 39768411 38458358 37638651 38658683 

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Page last modified: July 01, 2014
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