|Mesoscale Discussion 1245|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017
Areas affected...Arrowhead of MN...western Lake Superior...western
Upper Peninsula of MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061900Z - 062000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for hail/wind may develop as
thunderstorms intensify this afternoon as they move southeast across
parts of the Upper Great Lakes.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a small cluster of
thunderstorms developing north of the Arrowhead of MN, downstream of
a shortwave trough moving from southeastern Manitoba into the Upper
Great Lakes. A residual plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (7.1 degrees C/km) on the 12Z INL raob and moderate
west-northwesterly flow in the mid- to high-levels will support some
storm organization. It is possible additional storms may form to
the southwest of the ongoing activity across Ontario. If additional
storms develop, a risk for hail/wind may include the Arrowhead of MN
and into western parts of the Upper Peninsula later this afternoon.
The expected coverage and intensity of storms will likely preclude
the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 48298848 47008857 46549037 47499168 48169057 48298848
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