Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1245
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1245 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1245
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Arrowhead of MN...western Lake Superior...western
   Upper Peninsula of MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061900Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for hail/wind may develop as
   thunderstorms intensify this afternoon as they move southeast across
   parts of the Upper Great Lakes.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a small cluster of
   thunderstorms developing north of the Arrowhead of MN, downstream of
   a shortwave trough moving from southeastern Manitoba into the Upper
   Great Lakes.  A residual plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse
   rates (7.1 degrees C/km) on the 12Z INL raob and moderate
   west-northwesterly flow in the mid- to high-levels will support some
   storm organization.  It is possible additional storms may form to
   the southwest of the ongoing activity across Ontario.  If additional
   storms develop, a risk for hail/wind may include the Arrowhead of MN
   and into western parts of the Upper Peninsula later this afternoon. 
   The expected coverage and intensity of storms will likely preclude
   the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48298848 47008857 46549037 47499168 48169057 48298848 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: July 06, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities