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Mesoscale Discussion 1246
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1246
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...South-central KY...Middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062052Z - 062245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions
   of south-central KY and middle TN as a line of storms this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a slight
   increase in the forward speed of the convective line moving across
   south-central KY. The downstream airmass over south-central KY and
   adjacent middle TN is moist and unstable, with recent mesoanalysis
   estimating MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. This downstream instability
   is expected to result in general storm persistence for at least the
   next few hours with some additional development southward into
   middle TN possible. Additionally, per the OHX VAD, mid-level flow
   from 30 to 35 kt exists over the area with some slight increase
   possible later this afternoon/evening at shortwave trough continues
   eastward. This kinematic environment is supportive of at least
   modest storm organization, as evidenced by the organized convective
   line. Continued forward propagation by the line will result in the
   potential for strong/damaging wind gusts along the cold pool this
   afternoon. Anticipated isolated/sporadic nature of the strong wind
   gusts is expected to preclude the need for a watch but convective
   trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37028533 37588462 37688391 37408314 36148401 35488524
               35308617 35628738 37028533 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2017
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