Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1246
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1246 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 301832Z - 302100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD...DEEPENING
   CUMULUS FIELD WHERE SFC HEATING OF THE MOIST/UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER
   /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY AS PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY
   INVIGORATE...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PER SFC
   OBS DETRACTS CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AN
   EXPANDING/UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR CINCINNATI MAY
   SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL KY...WITH ASCENT AT THE COLD
   POOL/S LEADING EDGE OFFERING A CORRIDOR OF GREATER TSTM-RISK INTO
   PARTS OF CNTRL KY. WITH THE LVX VWP SAMPLING AROUND 30 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL/WLY FLOW...VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO EVOLVE
   ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   37418448 36838553 37158629 38308669 38878677 39218609
               38928565 38358506 38148426 37418448 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 30, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities