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Mesoscale Discussion 1246
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012150Z - 020015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR VERY ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL EXIST INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...MOIST...UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED
   SWD IS ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NM...WITH
   MORE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SAME FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO PARTS
   OF THE TX S PLAINS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. WHILE CONTINUED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS MLCINH IS LIMITED...THE REGION
   IS DISPLACED TO THE SW OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE N-CNTRL STATES.
   ALSO...WITH A DEARTH OF DEEP SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY EXHIBIT
   PULSE CHARACTERISTICS. REGARDLESS...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND DCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG COULD FOSTER
   INTENSE DOWNBURSTS WITH VERY ISOLATED SVR WINDS POSSIBLE. STORMS
   WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS STATIC STABILITY INCREASES WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31780855 32800867 33420722 33070340 33230106 32290057
               31640243 31750671 31780855 

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Page last modified: July 02, 2014
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