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Mesoscale Discussion 1247
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1247
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0422 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017

   Areas affected...Far south-central VA...Central NC...Western
   SC...Northeast/East-central GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062122Z - 062315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated with
   isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts possible for the
   next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
   next hour or so as subtle forcing for ascent provided by both an
   approaching  shortwave trough and an outflow boundary (associated
   with earlier convection across middle TN) interact with the warm,
   moist, and unstable airmass across the Piedmont. Mesoanalysis
   estimates MLCAPE is currently around 1500 J/kg. Area VAD profiles
   show modest mid-level flow (i.e. around 20 kt at 6 km) and weak
   shear, suggesting generally unorganized storms. However, some
   increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated, supporting the
   potential for some brief storm organization. Even with the
   anticipated lack of storm organization, moderate instability within
   the moist airmass will still support updrafts strong enough for
   water loading and a resulting threat for damaging downburst winds.
   Isolated to widely scattered nature of the damaging winds is
   expected to preclude the need for a watch but convective trends
   across the region will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35598238 36438121 36907977 36737867 35567930 33718129
               33228248 33668437 35598238 

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