|Mesoscale Discussion 1247|
< Previous MD Next MD >
Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2017
Areas affected...Far south-central VA...Central NC...Western
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062122Z - 062315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated with
isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts possible for the
next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next hour or so as subtle forcing for ascent provided by both an
approaching shortwave trough and an outflow boundary (associated
with earlier convection across middle TN) interact with the warm,
moist, and unstable airmass across the Piedmont. Mesoanalysis
estimates MLCAPE is currently around 1500 J/kg. Area VAD profiles
show modest mid-level flow (i.e. around 20 kt at 6 km) and weak
shear, suggesting generally unorganized storms. However, some
increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated, supporting the
potential for some brief storm organization. Even with the
anticipated lack of storm organization, moderate instability within
the moist airmass will still support updrafts strong enough for
water loading and a resulting threat for damaging downburst winds.
Isolated to widely scattered nature of the damaging winds is
expected to preclude the need for a watch but convective trends
across the region will be monitored closely.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35598238 36438121 36907977 36737867 35567930 33718129
33228248 33668437 35598238
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home